Nacional Madeira vs Estoril
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3918
3917 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−208.9u
over 3917u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W2
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 728 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1480 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1495 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
814
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.3u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 92 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1987 | 68.5% | −84.4u |
| Match winner | 1931 | 60.5% | −124.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 101 | 66.3% | −3.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3918 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 50m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 50m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 58m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 28m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 28m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 53m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 8m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 51m before
Football · Premier League
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 36m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 6m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Madeira vs EstorilFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Pyunik Yerevan vs SardarapatFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.35 · −3.6% CLV | 3-7 | LOST |
| GAIS vs Malmo FFFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Hatta Dubai vs Al Jazira Abu DhabiFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.50 · +12.8% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Atletico Progreso vs Deportivo MaldonadoFootball · Premier League | first seen 50m before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| NSI Runavik vs EB/StreymurFootball · Premier League | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.17-58817/1000.17-5.88+0.17from 1.25 · +6.8% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Chippa United vs Orlando PiratesFootball · Premier League | first seen 58m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28from 1.30 · +1.6% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Feyenoord vs Go Ahead EaglesFootball · Premier League | first seen 28m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22from 1.35 · +10.7% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Twente vs PEC ZwolleFootball · Premier League | first seen 28m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.23 · −1.6% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Brommapojkarna vs OrgryteFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75from 1.75 · 0.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Irtysh Pavlodar vs Tobol KostanayFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| SK Beveren vs AnderlechtFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| ADO Den Haag vs GroningenFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1-4 | WON |
| LNZ Lebedin vs Chernomorets OdessaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.40 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Alianza San Salvador vs CacahuatiqueFootball · Premier League | first seen 53m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.65 · −10.8% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Platense vs Boca JuniorsFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Aguila San Miguel vs Atletico BalboaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 2-4 | LOST |
| Guayaquil City vs Libertad LojaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Cavalry vs ForgeFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.40+1407/51.40+1.40-0.71from 2.45 · +2.1% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Los Chancas vs MelgarFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-3 | LOST |
| Estudiantes La Plata vs Gimnasia La PlataFootball · Premier League | first seen 51m before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 4-0 | LOST |
| Rio Ave vs PortoFootball · Premier League | first seen 36m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 7.40 · +448.1% CLV | 0-2 | WON |
| Osijek vs Lokomotiva ZagrebFootball · Premier League | first seen 6m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.90 · +2.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Fortuna Sittard vs CambuurFootball · Premier League | first seen 6m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Manta vs Leones del NorteFootball · Premier League | first seen 6m before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.