Carlisle United vs Southend United
Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived
- Feed close
- 2.18+11859/501.18+1.18-0.85from 2.75 · +26.1% CLV
- Score
- 2-2
· first seen 48m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 48m before
Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · National league
AwayMatch Winner
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Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
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Football · National league
AwayMatch Winner
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Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · National league
X2Double Chance
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Football · National league
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· first seen 30m before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
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Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
X2Double Chance
· first seen 46m before
Football · National league
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 45m before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · National league
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · National league
X2Double Chance
· first seen 47m before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle United vs Southend UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 48m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 2.18+11859/501.18+1.18-0.85from 2.75 · +26.1% CLV | 2-2 | WON |
| Halifax Town vs HornchurchFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Boston United vs WealdstoneFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.97 · +3.7% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Solihull Moors vs Aldershot TownFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 3.00+2002/12.00+2.00-0.50from 2.80 · −6.7% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Sutton United vs Scunthorpe UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Eastleigh vs Boreham WoodFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Forest Green Rovers vs GatesheadFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.42 · +1.4% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Woking vs AltrinchamFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 5-1 | LOST |
| Worthing vs BarrowFootball · National league | first seen 30m before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Harrogate Town vs TamworthFootball · National league | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.70 · −5.6% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Boreham Wood vs Carlisle UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Hartlepool United vs WokingFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.15 · +7.5% CLV | 1:1 | LOST |
| Altrincham vs EastleighFootball · National league | first seen 46m before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Halifax Town vs Hartlepool UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 45m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.45 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| Forest Green Rovers vs AltrinchamFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.53 · −6.1% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Carlisle United vs Scunthorpe UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.60-1673/50.60-1.67+0.60from 1.65 · +3.1% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Worthing vs Boreham WoodFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.60 · +14.3% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Harrogate Town vs GatesheadFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Eastleigh vs Aldershot TownFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 6:4 | WON |
| Woking vs Southend UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.03+103103/1001.03+1.03-0.97from 2.00 · −1.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Boston United vs HornchurchFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Hornchurch vs WokingFootball · National league | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.17 · −11.4% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Aldershot Town vs Harrogate TownFootball · National league | first seen 47m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 2.08+10827/251.08+1.08-0.93from 1.88 · −9.6% CLV | 3-1 | LOST |
| Altrincham vs Halifax TownFootball · National league | first seen 47m before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Hartlepool United vs EastleighFootball · National league | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.70 · +3.0% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
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