Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived
- Feed close
- 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.77 · +4.1% CLV
- Score
- 3-1
· first seen 10m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
7146
7141 graded · 5 void
Win rate
62.6%
95% CI 61%–64%
Profit
−517.9u
over 7141u staked
Yield
−7.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
11
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 4 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 44% | 94 | 42.6%33%–53% | −1.8pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1480 | 55.3%53%–58% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2561 | 60.0%58%–62% | −6.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2583 | 68.4%67%–70% | −6.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 81% | 407 | 73.0%68%–77% | −7.6pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 12 | 83.3%55%–95% | −7.3pp |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
4027
Oct 26
+8pp
11
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±117.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 147 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3963 | 58.5% | −347.1u |
| Double chance | 3183 | 67.8% | −170.8u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1138 | 65.7% | −56.7u |
| League 1 | 542 | 64.6% | −37.7u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 369 | 59.6% | +31.4u |
| League 2 | 241 | 58.1% | −38.1u |
| Division 1 | 181 | 59.1% | −27.6u |
| Division 2 | 147 | 63.3% | −11.1u |
| Serie B | 145 | 60.7% | −14.3u |
| Championship | 122 | 63.1% | −10.5u |
| National league | 117 | 55.2% | −21.2u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 114 | 60.5% | −12.0u |
| Serie A | 103 | 53.4% | −21.1u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 7146 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 10m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 24m before
Football · League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 24m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 9m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 23m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 23m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 23m before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.77 · +4.1% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Erokspor vs SaryerFootball · League 1 | first seen 17m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Botev Vratsa vs Slavia SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.88 · −3.6% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Arka Gdynia vs Puszcza NiepolomiceFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Spartak Varna vs Septemvri SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Otrant vs PetrovacFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Ljungskile vs OddevoldFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.02+10251/501.02+1.02-0.98from 2.35 · +16.3% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Decic Tuzi vs BokeljFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.40 · −9.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Stal Mielec vs Polonia BytomFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 5-2 | WON |
| Oxford United vs Milton Keynes DonsFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Graficar Beograd vs Smederevo 1924Football · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Universitatea Cluj vs UTA AradFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.95 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Mardin BB vs AntalyasporFootball · League 1 | first seen 24m before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Hunedoara vs CFR ClujFootball · League 1 | first seen 24m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.65 · +3.9% CLV | 3-0 | LOST |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav RuseFootball · League 1 | first seen 9m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Arsenal Tivat vs Buducnost PodgoricaFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Unia Skierniewice vs Miedz LegnicaFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 0-3 | WON |
| CSKA Sofia vs Botev VratsaFootball · League 1 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 10.50 · +753.7% CLV | 5-0 | WON |
| Suzhou Dongwu vs Nantong ZhiyunFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Shenzhen Juniors vs Ningbo ProfessionalFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 1.75 · −6.4% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Varnamo vs OstersundsFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| First Vienna vs LieferingFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Rapid Bucuresti vs Dinamo BucurestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 23m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Bursaspor vs Igdir BelediyesporFootball · League 1 | first seen 23m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.58 · +9.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Manisa vs VansporFootball · League 1 | first seen 23m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 4-1 | WON |
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