CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.48 · +2.1% CLV
- Score
- 3-1
· first seen 17m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 17m before
Football · League 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 57m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 57m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 27m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 0m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 30m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 30m before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 30m before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 59m before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More VarnaFootball · League 1 | first seen 17m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.48 · +2.1% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Botev Plovdiv vs Levski SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.70 · +11.1% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Hammam Lif vs BizertinFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 0:1 | LOST |
| Mansfield Town vs Luton TownFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 5-2 | LOST |
| AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan AthleticFootball · League 1 | first seen 57m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Farul Constanta vs BotosaniFootball · League 1 | first seen 57m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.88-11422/250.88-1.14+0.88from 1.90 · +1.1% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Arka Gdynia vs Polonia BytomFootball · League 1 | first seen 27m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.75 · −1.7% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Petrovac vs Mornar BarFootball · League 1 | first seen 0m before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Hunedoara vs Dinamo BucurestiFootball · League 1 | first seen 30m before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Mardin BB vs VansporFootball · League 1 | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| Batman Petrolspor vs SivassporFootball · League 1 | first seen 30m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Istanbulspor vs Fatih KaragumrukFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Kayserispor vs BursasporFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| US Monastir vs Stade TunisienFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Notts County vs Burton AlbionFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 2.95+19539/201.95+1.95-0.51from 2.85 · −3.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Stockport County vs Wycombe WanderersFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 5-1 | WON |
| Sheffield Wednesday vs BromleyFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.73 · +1.8% CLV | 7-2 | WON |
| Leyton Orient vs BarnsleyFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 2.10 · +5.0% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Pogon Siedlce vs Stal MielecFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc vs CFR ClujFootball · League 1 | first seen 59m before | X2Double Chance | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | — | 2-3 | WON |
| Blackpool vs Peterborough UnitedFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.05+10521/201.05+1.05-0.95from 1.70 · −17.1% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Milton Keynes Dons vs LeicesterFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Nanjing City vs Guangxi HengchenFootball · League 1 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian LongdingFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 3-1 | LOST |
| Ljungskile vs VarnamoFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.