Heracles Almelo vs De Graafschap
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.38 · −2.8% CLV
- Score
- 5-0
· first seen 1m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
78
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
6222
6218 graded · 4 void
Win rate
63.3%
95% CI 62%–65%
Profit
−421.6u
over 6218u staked
Yield
−6.8%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W4
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 37 | 43.2%29%–59% | −1.7pp |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 1201 | 55.5%53%–58% | −0.3pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 2295 | 61.0%59%–63% | −5.1pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 2325 | 68.5%67%–70% | −6.5pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 350 | 72.3%67%–77% | −8.0pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 91% | 9 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−6pp
3115
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±108.1u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 130 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3250 | 58.9% | −278.6u |
| Double chance | 2972 | 68.2% | −143.0u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1094 | 65.5% | −58.8u |
| League 1 | 519 | 64.7% | −34.5u |
| Superleague | 508 | 60.4% | −67.9u |
| MLBMLB league page | 307 | 62.5% | +42.9u |
| League 2 | 225 | 58.7% | −33.7u |
| Division 1 | 171 | 59.6% | −24.9u |
| Division 2 | 137 | 64.2% | −8.8u |
| Serie B | 135 | 61.5% | −11.2u |
| Championship | 118 | 62.7% | −11.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 101 | 64.4% | −5.4u |
| Serie A | 95 | 52.6% | −20.5u |
| National league | 87 | 54.0% | −18.8u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 6222 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1m before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1m before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 30m before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 9m before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 8m before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 47m before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 47m before
Football · Division 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2m before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 5h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 1
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles Almelo vs De GraafschapFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.38 · −2.8% CLV | 5-0 | WON |
| Emmen vs FC VolendamFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.55 · +8.5% CLV | 5-3 | LOST |
| Shkendija vs Tikvesh 1930Football · Division 1 | first seen 30m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27from 1.32 · +3.9% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Bregalnica Stip vs Shkendija HaracineFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Omonia May 29 vs KarmiotissaFootball · Division 1 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Karmiotissa vs PafosFootball · Division 1 | first seen 9m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.22 · −0.8% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Sogndal vs StromsgodsetFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52from 1.55 · +2.0% CLV | 2-3 | WON |
| Aris Limassol vs Apollon LimassolFootball · Division 1 | first seen 8m before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| AEK Larnaca vs APOEL NicosiaFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| De Graafschap vs Almere CityFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 2.45+14529/201.45+1.45-0.69from 2.50 · +2.0% CLV | 1-4 | WON |
| Afturelding vs IF VestriFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.12-8333/250.12-8.33+0.12from 1.25 · +11.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Grindavik vs HK KopavogurFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 2.35+13527/201.35+1.35-0.74from 2.12 · −9.8% CLV | 4-3 | LOST |
| Cobh Ramblers vs Longford TownFootball · Division 1 | first seen 47m before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Cork City vs WexfordFootball · Division 1 | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.37 · +5.4% CLV | 2:3 | LOST |
| Kerry vs Treaty UnitedFootball · Division 1 | first seen 47m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.92-10923/250.92-1.09+0.92from 1.93 · +0.5% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Jong Ajax vs Helmond SportFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2m before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 3-2 | LOST |
| FC Volendam vs DordrechtFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 6-1 | WON |
| Den Bosch vs VitesseFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | — | 1-4 | LOST |
| Oss vs Jong UtrechtFootball · Division 1 | first seen 2m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.90 · 0.0% CLV | 1:0 | WON |
| Olympiacos Nicosia vs Nea SalamisFootball · Division 1 | first seen 5h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 3-3 | WON |
| Haugesund vs EgersundsFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.50 · 0.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Moss vs SogndalFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Stromsgodset vs HoddFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.25 · +5.0% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Odd vs KongsvingerFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.10+11011/101.10+1.10-0.91from 2.20 · +4.8% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| Asane vs LynFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.93 · +8.4% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
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