Yield
Profit as a percentage of everything staked — the number that says whether a tipster made money.
- 25th pct
- -5.3%
- Median
- +7.4%
- 75th pct
- +20.7%
Across 307 tracked tipsters in the current release. The middle half of the distribution lies between the two outer figures; half of everything measured sits above the median and half below.
Yield is total profit divided by total stake. A yield of 5% means that for every 100 units staked, 5 came back as profit. It is often called ROI, though ROI properly measures return on the money at risk over time rather than per unit staked.
Yield is only meaningful over prices somebody could actually have taken. Where a source publishes a probability instead of a price, the implied odds carry no bookmaker margin, and profit computed from them is systematically better than anything a bettor could have achieved. Records on this site keep those two populations apart for that reason.
A yield above about 10% over a few hundred picks is rare and worth checking carefully; over a few dozen picks it is noise.
Every figure above is computed from the same corpus as the free-tips study, using the collection and settlement steps set out in the methodology. The individual records behind it are at tipster records.