Sample size
How many settled picks stand behind a figure — and how many it takes before the figure means anything.
- 25th pct
- 9
- Median
- 20
- 75th pct
- 43
Across 858 tracked tipsters in the current release. The middle half of the distribution lies between the two outer figures; half of everything measured sits above the median and half below.
Every rate on a tipster record is an estimate, and the width of its uncertainty depends almost entirely on how many settled picks it was computed from. At 30 picks a win rate is barely distinguishable from a coin flip; at 300 it starts to be evidence; at 1,000 it is a fact about that tipster.
This is why records below a minimum sample are not indexed here and are labelled unproven rather than shown with a headline figure. A confident number over a small sample is worse than no number, because it invites a decision it cannot support.
The honest way to read any rate is through its interval. If the 95% interval on a win rate spans 45% to 65%, the tipster has not yet shown anything.
Every figure above is computed from the same corpus as the free-tips study, using the collection and settlement steps set out in the methodology. The individual records behind it are at tipster records.