Diablos Rojos del México vs Guerreros de Oaxaca
Baseball · LMB. Round of 16. Best of 7
AwayMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 8-3
· first seen 1h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4119
4118 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−215.7u
over 4118u staked
Yield
−5.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 8 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 777 | 55.9%52%–59% | −0.1pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1549 | 62.6%60%–65% | −3.6pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1563 | 70.1%68%–72% | −4.8pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 214 | 71.0%65%–77% | −9.4pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−3pp
1015
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±87.6u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 96 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2070 | 68.7% | −83.8u |
| Match winner | 2049 | 60.4% | −131.9u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 754 | 67.2% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 346 | 61.8% | −38.3u |
| League 1 | 338 | 67.2% | −10.4u |
| MLBMLB league page | 212 | 59.4% | +19.2u |
| League 2 | 153 | 60.8% | −17.3u |
| Division 1 | 111 | 64.0% | −7.4u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 103 | 62.1% | −8.1u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 69 | 50.7% | −16.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4119 picks with a captured kickoff.
Baseball · LMB. Round of 16. Best of 7
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1XDouble Chance
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X2Double Chance
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1XDouble Chance
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HomeMatch Winner
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Baseball · MLB
AwayMatch Winner
· first seen 4m before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diablos Rojos del México vs Guerreros de OaxacaBaseball · LMB. Round of 16. Best of 7 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | — | 8-3 | LOST |
| ABC Natal vs Nacional ManausFootball · Serie D. Quarter-finals. Second leg | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.80 · +4.7% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Las Palmas vs AlbaceteFootball · Segunda Division | first seen 38m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.67 · −14.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Famalicao vs MaritimoFootball · Premier League | first seen 38m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72from 1.72 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsBaseball · MLB | first seen 23m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.96-10424/250.96-1.04+0.96derived | — | 4-11 | WON |
| Atletico Mineiro vs GremioFootball · Serie A | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.80 · +5.9% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Union San Felipe vs CobreloaFootball · Serie B | first seen 8m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.30+13013/101.30+1.30-0.77from 2.25 · −2.2% CLV | 0-1 | WON |
| SE Gama vs Sao Jose Porto AlegreFootball · Serie D. Quarter-finals. Second leg | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.59-16959/1000.59-1.69+0.59derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.50 · −4.5% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy vs Chaco For EverFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 8m before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| HNK Gorica vs Hajduk SplitFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 1.62-16131/500.62-1.61+0.62from 1.70 · +4.9% CLV | 1-2 | WON |
| Vasco da Gama RJ vs Santos SPFootball · Serie A | first seen 8m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-3 | LOST |
| Caxias vs FigueirenseFootball · Serie C | first seen 8m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.78-12839/500.78-1.28+0.78from 1.95 · +9.6% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Orense vs Deportivo CuencaFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Radnik Bijeljina vs Zrinjski MostarFootball · Premier League | first seen 8m before | X2Double Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-5 | WON |
| Cobresal vs Deportes ConcepcionFootball · Serie A | first seen 8m before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Floresta vs AnapolisFootball · Serie C | first seen 8m before | X2Double Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
| Mardin BB vs AntalyasporFootball · League 1 | first seen 24m before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Besiktas vs EyupsporFootball · Superleague | first seen 24m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.33 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Amedspor vs Erzurumspor BBFootball · Superleague | first seen 24m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Hunedoara vs CFR ClujFootball · League 1 | first seen 24m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.65 · +3.9% CLV | 3-0 | LOST |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Dunav RuseFootball · League 1 | first seen 9m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla KrakowFootball · Superleague | first seen 9m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.03+103103/1001.03+1.03-0.97from 2.10 · +3.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Koper vs BravoFootball · Superleague | first seen 9m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.70 · 0.0% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia PhilliesBaseball · MLB | first seen 4m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | — | 5-7 | WON |
| IB Vestmannaeyjar vs IA AkranesFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.