Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF United
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived
- Feed close
- 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.45 · +7.4% CLV
- Score
- 3-0
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4035
4034 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−216.6u
over 4034u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 764 | 55.4%52%–59% | −0.5pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1516 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1533 | 70.3%68%–72% | −4.7pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
931
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.7u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2031 | 68.6% | −84.3u |
| Match winner | 2004 | 60.3% | −132.2u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 343 | 61.5% | −39.8u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 207 | 59.4% | +18.8u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 101 | 62.4% | −7.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4035 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs JEF UnitedFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.45 · +7.4% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Kashiwa Reysol vs Mito HollyHockFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.65-15413/200.65-1.54+0.65from 1.55 · −6.1% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Norths Bears vs Central Coast CrusadersBasketball · NBL 1. East. Semi-finals | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16derived | — | 94-80 | WON |
| Illawarra Hawks Waratah vs Sutherland SharksBasketball · NBL 1. East. Semi-finals | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | — | 79-85 | LOST |
| Eltham Wildcats vs Nunawading SpectresBasketball · NBL 1. South. Semi-finals | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19derived | — | 91-89 | WON |
| Melbourne Tigers vs Frankston BluesBasketball · NBL 1. South. Semi-finals | first seen 56m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 79-82 | LOST |
| Targu Mures vs Cetatea SuceavaFootball · League 2 | first seen 26m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.35 · −4.9% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| CSA Steaua Bucuresti vs Ramnicu ValceaFootball · League 2 | first seen 26m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.53 · 0.0% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Eastern Suburbs Queensland vs Wynnum WolvesFootball · Queensland. National Premier League | first seen 26m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.55 · +2.0% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Sutherland Sharks vs FC Sydney U21Football · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.98-10249/500.98-1.02+0.98from 1.93 · −2.5% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| NWS Spirit vs Blacktown CityFootball · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 2.55+15531/201.55+1.55-0.65from 2.55 · 0.0% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Canberra Croatia vs O'Connor KnightsFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.12-8333/250.12-8.33+0.12from 1.12 · 0.0% CLV | 4-5 | LOST |
| Adelaide Adrenaline vs Brisbane LightningIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 2.04+10426/251.04+1.04-0.96derived | 2.18+11859/501.18+1.18-0.85from 2.18 · 0.0% CLV | 6-7 | LOST |
| Canberra Brave vs Melbourne IceIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 48m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | 1.58-17229/500.58-1.72+0.58from 1.70 · +7.6% CLV | 5-2 | WON |
| Skycity Stampede vs Canterbury Red DevilsIce Hockey · NZIHL. Play-offs. Semi-finals. Second leg | first seen 48m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.20 · 0.0% CLV | 7-1 | WON |
| Sydney Ice Dogs vs Newcastle North StarsIce Hockey · AIHL League | first seen 48m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.55-18211/200.55-1.82+0.55from 1.55 · 0.0% CLV | 3-4 | WON |
| Dunedin Thunder vs West Auckland AdmiralsIce Hockey · NZIHL. Play-offs. Semi-finals. Second leg | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.45 · +7.4% CLV | 10-4 | WON |
| University New South Wales vs Sydney OlympicFootball · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | 1.87-11587/1000.87-1.15+0.87from 1.87 · 0.0% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Kingborough Lions vs Clarence ZebrasFootball · Tasmania. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.40 · +3.7% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Devonport City vs Launceston CityFootball · Tasmania. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.48-20812/250.48-2.08+0.48from 1.50 · +1.4% CLV | 0-6 | LOST |
| Canberra Olympic vs Cooma TigersFootball · Capital Territory. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 2-5 | WON |
| Glenorchy Knights vs Launceston UnitedFootball · Tasmania. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.18-5569/500.18-5.56+0.18from 1.18 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| South Hobart vs Riverside OlympicFootball · Tasmania. National Premier League | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.14-7147/500.14-7.14+0.14from 1.14 · 0.0% CLV | 5-2 | WON |
| Dallas Wings (w) vs Golden State Valkyries (w)Basketball · WNBA | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | — | 76-94 | LOST |
| Independiente Rivadavia vs Estudiantes Rio CuartoFootball · Premier League | first seen 32m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.45 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
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