Holstein Kiel vs St. Pauli
Football · Bundesliga 2
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-2
· first seen 2h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4024
4023 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−212.8u
over 4023u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W7
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 762 | 55.5%52%–59% | −0.4pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1511 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1529 | 70.3%68%–73% | −4.7pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
920
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.6u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2028 | 68.6% | −85.5u |
| Match winner | 1996 | 60.4% | −127.3u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 341 | 61.3% | −40.4u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 207 | 59.4% | +18.8u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 101 | 62.4% | −7.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4024 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Bundesliga 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 59m before
Football · League 1. Season 26/27
X2Double Chance
· first seen 59m before
Football · Superliga
X2Double Chance
· first seen 29m before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League. Season 26/27
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 46m before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 8h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Victoria.National Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Queensland. National Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Queensland. National Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · New South Wales. National Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Serie B
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · Serie B
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 47m before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Division 1
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel vs St. PauliFootball · Bundesliga 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Nomme United vs Tammeka TartuFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Turan Tovuz vs QabalaFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| VPS Vaasa vs Turun PalloseuraFootball · Superleague | first seen 59m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
| Neftekhimik vs ShinnikFootball · League 1. Season 26/27 | first seen 59m before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Feronikeli vs SC GjilaniFootball · Superliga | first seen 29m before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Slavia MozyrFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| Orenburg vs Lokomotiv MoscowFootball · Premier League. Season 26/27 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk vs Probiy HorodenkaFootball · League 1 | first seen 46m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai PortFootball · Superleague | first seen 8h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Tokyo Verdy vs Kashiwa ReysolFootball · Premier League | first seen 6h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| Dandenong City vs Altona MagicFootball · Victoria.National Premier League | first seen 6h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Gold Coast United vs Eastern Suburbs QueenslandFootball · Queensland. National Premier League | first seen 6h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Brisbane Roar (youth) vs Gold Coast KnightsFootball · Queensland. National Premier League | first seen 6h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| FC Sydney U21 vs St. George CityFootball · New South Wales. National Premier League | first seen 6h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 2.70+17017/101.70+1.70-0.59from 2.70 · 0.0% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Iquique vs Deportes CopiapoFootball · Serie B | first seen 17m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 4-0 | WON |
| Curico Unido vs Deportes Santa CruzFootball · Serie B | first seen 17m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 2.13+113113/1001.13+1.13-0.88from 2.00 · −6.1% CLV | 1-2 | LOST |
| Egnatia Rrogozhine vs Shamrock RoversFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg | first seen 47m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 5-1 | WON |
| Gyor Eto vs FC RigaFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg | first seen 17m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Anderlecht vs PAOKFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg | first seen 17m before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 3-2 | LOST |
| CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel AvivFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-3 | LOST |
| IF Vestri vs IR ReykjavikFootball · Division 1 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Vaduz vs Inter TurkuFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Vikingur Reykjavik vs ThunFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 3-2 | WON |
| Gornik Zabrze vs FerencvarosFootball · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.