Wil 1900 vs Aarau
Football · Challenge League
X2Double Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-2
· first seen 14m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3918
3917 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−208.9u
over 3917u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W2
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 728 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1480 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1495 | 70.6%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
814
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.3u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 92 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1987 | 68.5% | −84.4u |
| Match winner | 1931 | 60.5% | −124.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 101 | 66.3% | −3.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3918 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Challenge League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 14m before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league. North
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National League. South
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National League. South
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National League. South
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league. North
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league. North
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National League. South
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · National league
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Serie A
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2m before
Football · Serie A
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 14m before
Football · Serie B
X2Double Chance
· first seen 14m before
Football · Serie A
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Liga Nacional
X2Double Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Primera Nacional
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · Primera Division. Group stage
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 3h before
Football · MLS
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wil 1900 vs AarauFootball · Challenge League | first seen 14m before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Erbil vs Al MinaaFootball · Superleague | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi HaifaFootball · Premier League | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Rapid Bucuresti vs Universitatea CraiovaFootball · League 1 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 1:1 | WON |
| Partizan Beograd vs OFK BeogradFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| GAIS vs BrommapojkarnaFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 4:0 | LOST |
| Radcliffe vs DarlingtonFootball · National league. North | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Chesham United vs Dover AthleticFootball · National League. South | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2:2 | WON |
| Salisbury vs Billericay TownFootball · National League. South | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1:0 | WON |
| Braintree Town vs FarnboroughFootball · National League. South | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 0:2 | LOST |
| Harborough Town vs MarineFootball · National league. North | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Eastleigh vs Aldershot TownFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 6:4 | WON |
| Buxton vs Merthyr TownFootball · National league. North | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Farnham Town vs Torquay UnitedFootball · National League. South | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2:0 | WON |
| Boston United vs HornchurchFootball · National league | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 2-3 | LOST |
| Deportivo Cali vs Atletico BucaramangaFootball · Serie A | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 2.08+10827/251.08+1.08-0.93from 4.00 · +92.3% CLV | 2:1 | WON |
| Cienciano vs CuscoFootball · Premier League | first seen 2m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Gremio vs ChapecoenseFootball · Serie A | first seen 14m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Curico Unido vs Deportes RecoletaFootball · Serie B | first seen 14m before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros VillavicencioFootball · Serie A | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Estrella Roja vs Olimpia TegucigalpaFootball · Liga Nacional | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Godoy Cruz vs Atletico San TelmoFootball · Primera Nacional | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| Deportivo Tachira vs CaracasFootball · Primera Division. Group stage | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Columbus Crew vs New England RevolutionFootball · MLS | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 1-3 | WON |
| Orense vs MacaraFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
Think this record is wrong — a pick you did not publish, a wrong grade, a mis-matched fixture? Tell us and we will check it against what we captured and correct anything we got wrong.