Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
Football · League 2
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 3-1
· first seen 50m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3913
3912 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−208.9u
over 3912u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 724 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1480 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1494 | 70.5%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
809
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.2u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 91 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1986 | 68.5% | −84.8u |
| Match winner | 1927 | 60.5% | −124.1u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 101 | 66.3% | −3.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3913 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts vs DumbartonFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Colchester United vs OldhamFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Edinburgh City vs Annan AthleticFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.98-10249/500.98-1.02+0.98from 2.25 · +13.6% CLV | 1-0 | WON |
| Exeter City vs Accrington StanleyFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Fehervar vs Mezokovesd ZsoryFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Kozarmisleny SE vs Szeged 2011Football · League 2 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Gyirmot vs KecskemetiFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 1-4 | WON |
| Port Vale vs Tranmere RoversFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Tatran Presov vs Inter BratislavaFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Slovan Galanta vs PohronieFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Bytca vs ViOn Zlate MoravceFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.40 · +2.2% CLV | 2-1 | LOST |
| Swindon Town vs Cheltenham TownFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 4.60+36018/53.60+3.60-0.28from 4.60 · 0.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Shrewsbury Town vs BarnetFootball · League 2 | first seen 50m before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 1.87 · −3.1% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Tampere United vs RoPSFootball · League 2 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 2.03 · +5.2% CLV | 4-0 | WON |
| Bristol Rovers vs Newport CountyFootball · League 2 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.55 · −4.9% CLV | 5-3 | WON |
| Salford City vs ChesterfieldFootball · League 2 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.79-12779/1000.79-1.27+0.79derived | 1.93-10893/1000.93-1.08+0.93from 2.00 · +3.6% CLV | 0-1 | LOST |
| Vysocina Jihlava vs MAS TaborskoFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Karvina vs Viktoria ZizkovFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33from 1.33 · 0.0% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Opava vs TrinecFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.80-1254/50.80-1.25+0.80from 1.70 · −5.6% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| RoPS vs KuPS 2 KuopioFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25from 1.30 · +4.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| MAS Taborsko vs OpavaFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 2.05+10521/201.05+1.05-0.95from 2.00 · −2.4% CLV | 3-0 | WON |
| Kladno vs Sellier and Bellot VlasimFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 2.50+1503/21.50+1.50-0.67from 2.40 · −4.0% CLV | 1-1 | LOST |
| SalPa vs FC JazzFootball · League 2 | first seen 54m before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 0-2 | WON |
| Samorin vs Banik LehotaFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.60 · +6.7% CLV | 0-2 | LOST |
| Pribram vs ProstejovFootball · League 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.85-11817/200.85-1.18+0.85from 1.80 · −2.7% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
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