Leiria vs Tondela
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
- Tipster odds
- 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived
- Feed close
- —
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 5h before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3913
3912 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.6%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−208.9u
over 3912u staked
Yield
−5.3%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L1
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 724 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1480 | 62.4%60%–65% | −3.8pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1494 | 70.5%68%–73% | −4.4pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 200 | 70.5%64%–76% | −9.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
809
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±85.2u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 91 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1986 | 68.5% | −84.8u |
| Match winner | 1927 | 60.5% | −124.1u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 729 | 67.2% | −20.6u |
| Superleague | 329 | 60.8% | −41.4u |
| League 1 | 320 | 67.5% | −9.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 189 | 59.8% | +18.2u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 101 | 66.3% | −3.6u |
| Serie B | 96 | 61.5% | −8.8u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 78 | 62.8% | −6.1u |
| Championship | 69 | 65.2% | −4.6u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 54 | 61.1% | −5.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3913 picks with a captured kickoff.
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| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria vs TondelaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 5h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-0 | WON |
| Guairena vs Independiente Campo GrandeFootball · Division 2 | first seen 54m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| 12 de Junio Villa Hayes vs Guarani ParaguariFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 1.57-17557/1000.57-1.75+0.57from 1.65 · +5.1% CLV | 3-2 | WON |
| Feirense vs Porto 2Football · Division 2 | first seen 3m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Farense vs Felgueiras 1932Football · Division 2 | first seen 3h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Leixoes vs LeiriaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-4 | LOST |
| Koninklijke vs BarendrechtFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-2 | LOST |
| Union Comercio vs Carlos ManucciFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.53-18953/1000.53-1.89+0.53from 1.60 · +4.6% CLV | 0-0 | LOST |
| Cesar Vallejo vs Deportivo LlacuabambaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 2-0 | LOST |
| Francs Borains vs HasseltFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Benjamin Aceval vs Deportivo SantaniFootball · Division 2 | first seen 49m before | X2Double Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-3 | WON |
| ROHDA Raalte vs De TreffersFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | 1.22-45511/500.22-4.55+0.22from 1.22 · 0.0% CLV | 0-3 | WON |
| Ayacucho vs Deportivo BinacionalFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.16-6254/250.16-6.25+0.16from 1.16 · 0.0% CLV | 7-1 | WON |
| Lierse Kempenzonen vs Patro Eisden MaasmechelenFootball · Division 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| IJsselmeervogels vs Quick BoysFootball · Division 2 | first seen 57m before | X2Double Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-1 | WON |
| Katwijk vs HoekFootball · Division 2 | first seen 57m before | X2Double Chance | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Comerciantes vs Union MinasFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.82-12241/500.82-1.22+0.82derived | 5.50+4509/24.50+4.50-0.22from 6.50 · +18.2% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Lusitania Lourosa vs TorreenseFootball · Division 2 | first seen 3h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| Atletico Tembetary vs Fernando de la MoraFootball · Division 2 | first seen 57m before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Vizela vs AmaranteFootball · Division 2 | first seen 57m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Kloetinge vs Kozakken BoysFootball · Division 2 | first seen 57m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 3-3 | WON |
| Deportivo Capiata vs GuairenaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 55m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Sol de America vs ResistenciaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| LDU Portoviejo vs 22 de JulioFootball · Division 2 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.58 · +15.3% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Tondela vs Academica CoimbraFootball · Division 2 | first seen 12m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.32-3128/250.32-3.12+0.32derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
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