Odds

The price a bet is taken at, and the single biggest driver of what a strike rate means.

Measured — Odds
25th pct
1.75
Median
1.88
75th pct
2.03

Across 21,566 advertised picks in the current release. The middle half of the distribution lies between the two outer figures; half of everything measured sits above the median and half below.

Decimal odds state total return per unit staked: 2.50 returns 2.50 for a 1 stake, of which 1.50 is profit. The implied probability is 1 divided by the odds — 2.50 implies 40%.

Those implied probabilities always add up to more than 100% across a market. The excess is the bookmaker's margin, and it is why beating the market is hard: a bettor has to be right more often than the true probabilities suggest just to break even.

Knowing the price range a tipster works in tells you what to expect from their strike rate before you look at it.

Every figure above is computed from the same corpus as the free-tips study, using the collection and settlement steps set out in the methodology. The individual records behind it are at tipster records.