Odds
The price a bet is taken at, and the single biggest driver of what a strike rate means.
- 25th pct
- 1.75
- Median
- 1.88
- 75th pct
- 2.03
Across 21,566 advertised picks in the current release. The middle half of the distribution lies between the two outer figures; half of everything measured sits above the median and half below.
Decimal odds state total return per unit staked: 2.50 returns 2.50 for a 1 stake, of which 1.50 is profit. The implied probability is 1 divided by the odds — 2.50 implies 40%.
Those implied probabilities always add up to more than 100% across a market. The excess is the bookmaker's margin, and it is why beating the market is hard: a bettor has to be right more often than the true probabilities suggest just to break even.
Knowing the price range a tipster works in tells you what to expect from their strike rate before you look at it.
Every figure above is computed from the same corpus as the free-tips study, using the collection and settlement steps set out in the methodology. The individual records behind it are at tipster records.