Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao
Football · Primera Division. Season 26/27
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived
- Feed close
- 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.25 · +1.6% CLV
- Score
- 2-0
· first seen 59m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
3997
3996 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−216.8u
over 3996u staked
Yield
−5.4%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
L2
consecutive losses
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 46% | 7 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 748 | 55.2%52%–59% | −0.7pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1505 | 62.3%60%–65% | −3.9pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1522 | 70.4%68%–73% | −4.6pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 207 | 71.5%65%–77% | −8.9pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−4pp
893
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±86.2u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 93 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2022 | 68.5% | −86.3u |
| Match winner | 1975 | 60.3% | −130.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 739 | 67.3% | −21.1u |
| Superleague | 341 | 61.3% | −40.4u |
| League 1 | 325 | 67.1% | −11.1u |
| MLBMLB league page | 197 | 59.4% | +17.7u |
| League 2 | 152 | 60.5% | −17.9u |
| Division 1 | 108 | 64.8% | −6.0u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 99 | 61.6% | −8.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 68 | 51.5% | −15.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 3997 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · Primera Division. Season 26/27
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 59m before
Football · National league
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 44m before
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X2Double Chance
· first seen 59m before
Football · Ligue 3
1XDouble Chance
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· first seen 7h before
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AwayMatch Winner
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Baseball · MLB
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HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
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AwayMatch Winner
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HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
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HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 6h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 5h before
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X2Double Chance
· first seen 5h before
Football · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg
X2Double Chance
· first seen 5h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona vs Athletic BilbaoFootball · Primera Division. Season 26/27 | first seen 59m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.23-43523/1000.23-4.35+0.23from 1.25 · +1.6% CLV | 2-0 | WON |
| Boreham Wood vs Boston UnitedFootball · National league | first seen 44m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.25-4001/40.25-4.00+0.25derived | 1.50-2001/20.50-2.00+0.50from 1.53 · +2.0% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Partizan Beograd vs GetafeFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 59m before | X2Double Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| SM Caen vs BastiaFootball · Ligue 3 | first seen 44m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Hibernian vs GentFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 59m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.72-13918/250.72-1.39+0.72derived | 2.80+1809/51.80+1.80-0.56from 2.70 · −3.6% CLV | 2-3 | LOST |
| Rijeka vs MidtjyllandFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 44m before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-4 | WON |
| Chelsea vs Luton TownFootball · League Cup. Second round | first seen 4d 23h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | 1.20-5001/50.20-5.00+0.20from 1.20 · 0.0% CLV | 2-0 | LOST |
| Borac Banja Luka vs Vikingur ReykjavikFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 29m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.41-24441/1000.41-2.44+0.41derived | — | 3-1 | WON |
| Ajax vs SionFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 7h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 5-3 | WON |
| Thun vs Lech PoznanFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 7h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 2-2 | WON |
| AGF Aarhus vs BenficaFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 7h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37from 1.48 · +8.0% CLV | 1-3 | WON |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado RockiesBaseball · MLB | first seen 7h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.64-15616/250.64-1.56+0.64derived | — | 7-1 | WON |
| Lillestrom vs Egnatia RrogozhineFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.42-23821/500.42-2.38+0.42from 1.45 · +2.1% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Kauno Zalgiris vs BesiktasFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | AwayMatch Winner | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.35 · 0.0% CLV | 1-0 | LOST |
| FC Riga vs KI KlaksvikFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.56-17914/250.56-1.79+0.56derived | 1.40-2502/50.40-2.50+0.40from 1.42 · +1.4% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Brann vs PAOKFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | X2Double Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 3-2 | LOST |
| Al Mokawloon vs Al MasryFootball · Premier League | first seen 6h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 2-3 | WON |
| Pafos vs Dinamo TiranaFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30from 1.33 · +2.3% CLV | 4-2 | WON |
| Hradec Kralove vs PanathinaikosFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | X2Double Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Omonia Nicosia vs Sint-TruidenseFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 4-2 | WON |
| Monaco vs Gornik ZabrzeFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35from 1.40 · +3.7% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Freiburg vs MotherwellFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 6h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | 1.19-52619/1000.19-5.26+0.19from 1.22 · +2.5% CLV | 4-1 | WON |
| Iberia 1999 vs Jagiellonia BialystokFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 5h before | X2Double Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-2 | WON |
| Qarabag vs TwenteFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 5h before | X2Double Chance | 1.43-23343/1000.43-2.33+0.43derived | — | 1-4 | WON |
| Jablonec vs RangersFootball · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg | first seen 5h before | X2Double Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-0 | LOST |
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