Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
- Tipster odds
- 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived
- Feed close
- 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.77 · +4.1% CLV
- Score
- 3-1
· first seen 10m before
Publishes on Vitibet · first tracked
Tipzy Score
77
75 = break-even, proven
Tipzy is not affiliated with Vitibet or with Vitibet Algorithm, and is not paid by either. This record is built only from picks published publicly on Vitibet and graded against the final result. How this is measured
Derived prices. This source publishes a probability, not a price. We convert it (1 ÷ probability) so the forecast can be scored, but it carries no bookmaker margin and nobody could have bet at it. Read the figures below as forecast accuracy, not betting returns. Methodology
Settled
4099
4098 graded · 1 void
Win rate
64.5%
95% CI 63%–66%
Profit
−214.9u
over 4098u staked
Yield
−5.2%
Every graded pick in time order. Losing runs are what following a record actually feels like — a profitable one can still lose ten in a row. Drawdown is the deepest fall of cumulative level-stake P/L, published prices only: derived prices cannot lose real units.
Longest win streak
16
Longest losing streak
8
Current streak
W1
consecutive wins
Max drawdown
—
Needs 10+ priced picks
This source publishes a probability with each pick, and a probability is a checkable claim: of all the picks it called 70–80%, roughly 70–80% should win. Each row compares a band of claims against the measured outcome. Measured rate and gap are withheld below 10 graded picks.
| Model claims | Picks | Measured | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40%avg claim 39% | 1 | — | — |
| 40–50%avg claim 45% | 8 | — | — |
| 50–60%avg claim 56% | 775 | 55.7%52%–59% | −0.2pp |
| 60–70%avg claim 66% | 1540 | 62.6%60%–65% | −3.6pp |
| 70–80%avg claim 75% | 1556 | 70.1%68%–72% | −4.8pp |
| 80–90%avg claim 80% | 212 | 71.2%65%–77% | −9.2pp |
| 90–100%avg claim 90% | 6 | — | — |
The same audit month by month — an aggregate table can average a model that drifted. Gap is measured minus claimed; positive means picks won more often than claimed. Withheld below 10 graded picks in a month.
Aug 26
−4pp
3103
Sept 26
−3pp
995
Computed from derived prices (1/probability) — forecast accuracy, not an achievable betting return.
Zoom with the buttons above, the scroll wheel or a pinch; drag the chart to pan. Ends outside the shaded band (±87.4u), so chance alone is an unlikely explanation.
Biggest samples first · 95 smaller groups not shown · groups under 3 graded picks are excluded.
Ordered by sample size. Unmapped markets are shown rather than hidden — they are picks we recorded but have not yet normalised. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a market to see its picks.
| Market | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 2060 | 68.7% | −82.4u |
| Match winner | 2039 | 60.3% | −132.5u |
Top 12 leagues by number of settled picks. Win rate is withheld below 10 settled picks. Click a league to see its picks.
| League | Settled | Win rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 751 | 67.2% | −21.3u |
| Superleague | 344 | 61.6% | −39.1u |
| League 1 | 334 | 67.1% | −11.2u |
| MLBMLB league page | 212 | 59.4% | +19.2u |
| League 2 | 153 | 60.8% | −17.3u |
| Division 1 | 110 | 64.5% | −6.4u |
| Division 2 | 104 | 65.4% | −5.2u |
| Serie B | 102 | 61.8% | −8.4u |
| Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional league page | 79 | 63.3% | −5.8u |
| Championship | 76 | 65.8% | −4.4u |
| Serie A | 69 | 50.7% | −16.4u |
| National league. NorthNational league. North league page | 55 | 60.0% | −6.7u |
Tips typically appear 1h before kickoff — median over 4099 picks with a captured kickoff.
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 10m before
Football · Superleague
X2Double Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Liga MX
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 59m before
Football · Premier League
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Division 2
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 2h before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · Superleague
X2Double Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 2h before
Football · League 1
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 17m before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 48m before
Football · Superleague
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · League 3
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 1
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 1h before
Football · Premier League
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Serie C
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 44m before
Football · Copa Paulista. Group stage
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 44m before
Football · League 3
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Superleague
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 1h before
Football · Division 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 47m before
Football · Division 2. Group 2
1XDouble Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · League 2
X2Double Chance
· first seen 4h before
Football · Third qualifying round. First leg
HomeMatch Winner
· first seen 3h before
| Match | Played | Selection | Tipster odds | Feed close | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 10m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.70-1437/100.70-1.43+0.70from 1.77 · +4.1% CLV | 3-1 | WON |
| Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing GuoanFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 0-3 | WON |
| AB Argir vs KI KlaksvikFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 3-4 | WON |
| Tijuana vs Cruz AzulFootball · Liga MX | first seen 59m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.33-30333/1000.33-3.03+0.33derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Emelec vs Tecnico UniversitarioFootball · Premier League | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.67-14967/1000.67-1.49+0.67derived | 1.63-15963/1000.63-1.59+0.63from 1.67 · +2.5% CLV | 2-1 | WON |
| Degerfors vs GoteborgFootball · Premier League | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.52-19213/250.52-1.92+0.52derived | — | 3-0 | WON |
| De Treffers vs GVVV VeenendaalFootball · Division 2 | first seen 2h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.61-16461/1000.61-1.64+0.61derived | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45from 1.38 · −4.8% CLV | 5-1 | WON |
| Konyaspor vs RizesporFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.35-2867/200.35-2.86+0.35derived | — | 0-1 | LOST |
| Dukla Banska Bystrica vs ZilinaFootball · Superleague | first seen 2h before | X2Double Chance | 1.27-37027/1000.27-3.70+0.27derived | — | 3-4 | WON |
| Tartu Welco vs Flora 2 TallinnFootball · League 2 | first seen 2h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 2-1 | WON |
| Erokspor vs SaryerFootball · League 1 | first seen 17m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.30-3333/100.30-3.33+0.30derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Cumbaya vs Deportivo Santo DomingoFootball · Division 2 | first seen 48m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 3-3 | WON |
| Mura vs NK RadomljeFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | 2.00+1001/11.00+1.00+1.00from 1.92 · −4.0% CLV | 1-3 | LOST |
| Botev Vratsa vs Slavia SofiaFootball · League 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.75-1333/40.75-1.33+0.75derived | 1.95-10519/200.95-1.05+0.95from 1.88 · −3.6% CLV | 0-3 | LOST |
| Varnsdorf vs Benatky nad JizerouFootball · League 3 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.47-21347/1000.47-2.13+0.47derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| Strommen vs RanheimFootball · Division 1 | first seen 1h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 2.02+10251/501.02+1.02-0.98from 2.18 · +7.9% CLV | 1-4 | LOST |
| Juan Pablo 2 vs Atletico GrauFootball · Premier League | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.49-20449/1000.49-2.04+0.49derived | — | 0-0 | WON |
| Botafogo Paraiba vs Santa Cruz RecifeFootball · Serie C | first seen 44m before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | 1.90-1119/100.90-1.11+0.90from 1.90 · 0.0% CLV | 2-2 | LOST |
| Uniao Sao Joao vs Comercial Ribeirao PretoFootball · Copa Paulista. Group stage | first seen 44m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.28-3577/250.28-3.57+0.28derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Vitkovice vs HavirovFootball · League 3 | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 1-1 | WON |
| Fastav Zlin vs Bohemians PragueFootball · Superleague | first seen 1h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.39-25639/1000.39-2.56+0.39derived | — | 0-2 | LOST |
| Deportivo Capiata vs Sol de AmericaFootball · Division 2 | first seen 47m before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.54-18527/500.54-1.85+0.54derived | — | 1-4 | LOST |
| Eidsvold Turn vs KjelsasFootball · Division 2. Group 2 | first seen 4h before | 1XDouble Chance | 1.37-27037/1000.37-2.70+0.37derived | — | 1-0 | WON |
| FC Elva vs Tartu WelcoFootball · League 2 | first seen 4h before | X2Double Chance | 1.45-2229/200.45-2.22+0.45derived | — | 2-1 | LOST |
| Olympiacos Piraeus vs NEC NijmegenFootball · Third qualifying round. First leg | first seen 3h before | HomeMatch Winner | 1.69-14569/1000.69-1.45+0.69derived | — | 0-0 | LOST |
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