When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,344
Tipsters
757
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.4%
  • Voluntari vs Arges PitestiOver/Under · League 1date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 4

    • FixSignalblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.54won
    • FixSignalblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.54won
    • FixSignalblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.54won
    • FixSignalblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.95won
  • Stuttgart vs VikingAsian over under · League phasedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • [email protected]blogabet34 picks · 41.2% · -12.71%1.85won
    • @FROMDIRblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80won
    • @FROMDIRblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.25lost
    • Telegram - @godsonmarblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.81won
  • Khachanov K vs Tien LMatch winner · Mendate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • BaselineQuantblogabet77 picks · 41.6% · -21.64%2.62won
    • Tennis Masterr on Xblogabet32 picks · 37.5% · -8.25%2.58won
    • Solidvalueblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.50won
    • Solidvalueblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.50won
  • Kun Khalifa vs BarauAsian handicap · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    • zibi1973blogabet121 picks · 42.1% · -2.63%1.83won
    • Karcs1blogabet60 picks · 51.7% · -2.60%1.83won
    • Karcs1blogabet60 picks · 51.7% · -2.60%1.83won
    • roxusblogabet32 picks · 43.8% · -22.60%1.84void
  • Twente vs TelstarOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.95lost
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.98lost
    • goodyear1asianbookie175 picks · 57.1% · +69.28%1.83lost
    • 300358asianbookie79 picks · 59.5% · +15.13%1.83lost
  • Mamelodi Sundowns vs SiweleleAsian handicap · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Best Paid Tipsterblogabet61 picks · 70.5% · +41.85%2.09won
    • Epimitheasblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.33won
    • Epimitheasblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.73won
    • toquerothebossblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.86won
  • Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt LakeOver/Under · MLSdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • win1706asianbookie298 picks · 58.1% · +52.43%1.95won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie183 picks · 54.1% · -19.93%1.95won
    • goodyear1asianbookie175 picks · 57.1% · +69.28%1.95won
    • 300358asianbookie79 picks · 59.5% · +15.13%1.95won
  • Atlanta Braves vs Tampa Bay RaysMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,078 picks · 64.6% · -5.21%won
    • Nostra_Quantblogabet95 picks · 50.5% · +1.98%2.10lost
    • Nostra_Quantblogabet95 picks · 50.5% · +1.98%2.11won
    • Tips The 6 Caminosblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.10lost
  • Sport Boys vs Deportivo GarcilasoAsian handicap · Premier League13 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vamos Rafablogabet90 picks · 56.7% · +4.72%1.86won
    • Vamos Rafablogabet90 picks · 56.7% · +4.72%1.88won
    • n30alb3rtblogabet32 picks · 50.0% · -8.90%1.83won
  • Elversberg vs BayernMatch winner · Bundesliga. Season 26/2713 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • SANSO INVESTMENTblogabet75 picks · 72.0% · +28.70%1.60lost
    • Spartacus7blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.60lost
    • Spartacus7blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.60lost
  • Le Mans vs LensOver/Under · Ligue 1. Season 26/2713 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%1.93won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.93won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.93won
  • Le Mans vs LensAsian handicap · Ligue 1. Season 26/2713 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Austria Vienna vs Austria LustenauAsian handicap · Bundesliga13 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • DOM_LIVEblogabet72 picks · 47.2% · -6.57%1.93won
    • SCpicks23blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80won
    • SCpicks23blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.85won
  • Slavia 2 Prague vs Viktoria ZizkovAsian handicap · League 213 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • awerblogabet112 picks · 64.3% · +33.90%1.83won
    • SlavsTipsblogabet50 picks · 62.0% · +24.18%1.78won
    • SlavsTipsblogabet50 picks · 62.0% · +24.18%1.82won
  • Samsunspor vs Corum BelediyesporAsian handicap · Superleague12 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • SirMasarykblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.63won
    • SirMasarykblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.63won
    • SirMasarykblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.63won
  • Southampton vs Bristol CityOver/Under · Championship12 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Sharp Capitalblogabet58 picks · 60.3% · +20.95%1.80lost
    • Zyskblogabet57 picks · 57.9% · +16.20%2.01lost
    • Football Bombsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.76won
  • Crawley Town vs Cheltenham TownOver/Under · League 212 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • PippiBetblogabet97 picks · 43.3% · -8.49%2.29void
    • PippiBetblogabet97 picks · 43.3% · -8.49%2.00void
    • Epimitheasblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.17won
  • Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportes TolimaAsian over under · Serie A12 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

  • Casarano vs BarlettaOver/Under · Serie C. Group C11 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Greimanblogabet80 picks · 61.3% · +18.98%1.89won
    • Greimanblogabet80 picks · 61.3% · +18.98%1.91won
    • imperoBetblogabet63 picks · 55.6% · +9.80%2.00lost
  • Seattle Mariners vs Texas RangersMatch winner · MLB10 Sept 2026missed
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,078 picks · 64.6% · -5.21%lost
    • Nostra_Quantblogabet95 picks · 50.5% · +1.98%2.35lost
    • Tips The 6 Caminosblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.10won
  • Manchester United vs Sabah BakuBoth teams to score · League phase10 Sept 2026missedone source
    —3 tips
    Yes
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Yes · 3

    • BMG96oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.14lost
    • KK23oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.05lost
    • Stayanzoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.98lost
  • Manchester United vs Sabah BakuOver/Under · League phase10 Sept 2026void
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%1.88void
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.88void
    • pojterheroddspedianot enough tracked yet1.83void
  • Operario Ferroviario U20 vs Chapecoense U20Over/Under · U20. Cup. Final. Round of 6410 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Dudu Silvablogabetnot enough tracked yet1.67won
    • Dudu Silvablogabetnot enough tracked yet1.67won
    • Dudu Silvablogabetnot enough tracked yet1.62won
  • Vancouver Whitecaps vs LA GalaxyMatch winner · MLS10 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsAsian handicap · MLB10 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%2.03won
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.61won
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.77won
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+16.89%

3,873 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.84%

765 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.8%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,873 graded

Rest win rate

48.0%

95% CI [44.5%, 51.5%]

765 graded

The most-backed selection yields +16.9% over 3,873 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.8% over 765 priced picks. The gap between them is +14.1%, but its 95% interval spans -19.2% to +47.3% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.4% over 31,036 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 4.5 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -8.0% to +16.9% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.1% to +15.8%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 757 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.4% of the settled corpus — 22,531 of 41,428 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,480
21,559
3772
4443
5325
6192
7143
8102
982
1052
1150
1247
1337
1434
1527
1624
1716
1811
1917
2013
219
224
237
249
253
263
276
286
295
305
312
323
331
344
353
363
371
381
391
400
411
420
431
441
450
462
470
480
491
501
510
521
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise663+19.31%+0.49%
4–5within noise424-7.35%+18.40%
6+within noise257+31.38%+0.01%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise639+11.80%+9.38%
Over/Underwithin noise475+20.25%-2.74%
Asian handicapwithin noise168+13.21%+9.58%
Asian over underwithin noise23-9.92%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise14-70.43%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources848+23.95%-24.50%
Within one source496+9.24%+51.63%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 18:57 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows