When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,344
Tipsters
757
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.4%
  • Talleres Cordoba vs Rosario CentralOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Freiburg vs MotherwellAsian handicap · Qualifying stage. Final. Second legdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%2.07won
    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.50lost
    • Fullbets365blogabet64 picks · 70.3% · +63.45%1.83won
    • necujniblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.07lost
  • Vardar Skopje vs SileksAsian handicap · Division 1date unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Arminia BielefeldOver/Under · Cup. First rounddate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 4

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%1.95lost
    • vegnes2277asianbookie183 picks · 54.1% · -19.93%1.95lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.95lost
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.95lost
  • Ipswich Town vs SunderlandOver/Under · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedlanded
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%1.95won
    • NiNaNiasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · -29.57%1.95won
    • Poonbijovasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · +5.58%1.95won
    • Dorothy-Pinnyblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.22won
  • Milan vs VeneziaHandicap · Serie A. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Mito HollyHock vs Kashima AntlersMatch winner · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissed
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Groningen vs Fortuna SittardOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%2.03won
    • win1706asianbookie298 picks · 58.1% · +52.43%2.03won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie183 picks · 54.1% · -19.93%2.03won
    • eko2710asianbookie111 picks · 60.4% · -14.96%2.03won
  • Caracas vs BarquisimetoMatch winner · Cup. Group stagedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Ro-betblogabet112 picks · 50.9% · -2.60%1.73won
    • Ro-betblogabet112 picks · 50.9% · -2.60%1.73won
    • deusexbettingblogabet37 picks · 51.4% · -2.65%1.80won
    • deusexbettingblogabet37 picks · 51.4% · -2.65%1.80won
  • Barnsley vs Crewe AlexandraOver/Under · League Cup. Second rounddate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 4

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%1.85lost
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.85lost
    • eko2710asianbookie111 picks · 60.4% · -14.96%1.85lost
    • man uasianbookie53 picks · 77.4% · +38.94%1.85lost
  • La Louviere vs MechelenOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Huachipato vs Colo ColoMatch winner · Serie Adate unverifiedmissed
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Lanus vs Argentinos JuniorsOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Qarabag vs Araz NakhchivanOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Sharp Capitalblogabet58 picks · 60.3% · +20.95%1.81won
    • slatnarblogabet55 picks · 72.7% · +10.79%1.23won
    • @FROMDIRblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.51won
    • Telegram - @godsonmarblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.32won
  • Osnabruck vs Eintracht BraunschweigAsian handicap · Bundesliga 2date unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%2.82lost
    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.94lost
    • SirMasarykblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.55lost
    • SirMasarykblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.72lost
  • America Mineiro vs Ponte PretaAsian handicap · Serie Bdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • cqc2003Nblogabet96 picks · 49.0% · -9.89%1.87lost
    • Pandos Worldinosblogabet82 picks · 62.2% · +26.55%2.01void
    • ritzblogabet46 picks · 60.9% · +8.24%1.86lost
    • ritzblogabet46 picks · 60.9% · +8.24%1.76lost
  • Alajuelense vs Deportivo SaprissaOver/Under · Premier Divisiondate unverifiedlanded
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Caitlinblogabet36 picks · 75.0% · +69.56%2.10won
    • Caitlinblogabet36 picks · 75.0% · +69.56%2.10won
    • Caitlinblogabet36 picks · 75.0% · +69.56%2.00won
    • Aledooddspedianot enough tracked yet1.87lost
  • KPV Akatemia vs Sporting KristinaAsian handicap · League 4date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Girona vs Las PalmasAsian handicap · Segunda Divisiondate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    • The Spanish Sorcererblogabet48 picks · 47.9% · -11.44%1.66lost
    • Rosco McQueenblogabet43 picks · 55.8% · +0.67%2.16lost
    • serpablogabet31 picks · 51.6% · -1.16%1.91lost
    • LMGuerrablogabetnot enough tracked yet1.88lost
  • Tochigi City vs Jubilo IwataOver/Under · Division 2date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.83won
    • win1706asianbookie298 picks · 58.1% · +52.43%1.83won
    • eko2710asianbookie111 picks · 60.4% · -14.96%1.83won
    • SIXFOOTERasianbookie107 picks · 47.7% · -45.16%1.95won
  • Rayo Vallecano vs Racing SantanderOver/Under · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • The Spanish Sorcererblogabet48 picks · 47.9% · -11.44%1.83won
    • Interfaceblogabet32 picks · 75.0% · +42.03%1.86won
    • roxusblogabet32 picks · 43.8% · -22.60%2.66won
    • roxusblogabet32 picks · 43.8% · -22.60%1.74won
  • Benfica vs EstorilOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Cavalier vs Portmore UnitedOver/Under · Group stagedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Lugano vs ServetteOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Enszi Diamondblogabet132 picks · 54.5% · +5.99%1.69lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.69won
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.75lost
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.83won
  • Grenoble vs AnnecyOver/Under · Ligue 2date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%1.95won
    • win1706asianbookie298 picks · 58.1% · +52.43%1.85won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.85won
    • goodyear1asianbookie175 picks · 57.1% · +69.28%1.85won
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+16.89%

3,873 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.84%

765 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.8%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,873 graded

Rest win rate

48.0%

95% CI [44.5%, 51.5%]

765 graded

The most-backed selection yields +16.9% over 3,873 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.8% over 765 priced picks. The gap between them is +14.1%, but its 95% interval spans -19.2% to +47.3% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.4% over 31,036 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 4.5 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -8.0% to +16.9% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.1% to +15.8%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 757 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.4% of the settled corpus — 22,531 of 41,428 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,480
21,559
3772
4443
5325
6192
7143
8102
982
1052
1150
1247
1337
1434
1527
1624
1716
1811
1917
2013
219
224
237
249
253
263
276
286
295
305
312
323
331
344
353
363
371
381
391
400
411
420
431
441
450
462
470
480
491
501
510
521
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise663+19.31%+0.49%
4–5within noise424-7.35%+18.40%
6+within noise257+31.38%+0.01%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise639+11.80%+9.38%
Over/Underwithin noise475+20.25%-2.74%
Asian handicapwithin noise168+13.21%+9.58%
Asian over underwithin noise23-9.92%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise14-70.43%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources848+23.95%-24.50%
Within one source496+9.24%+51.63%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 18:09 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows