When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,346
Tipsters
759
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.4%
  • Vancouver Whitecaps vs LA GalaxyMatch winner · MLS10 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati RedsAsian handicap · MLB10 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%2.03won
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.61won
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.77won
  • Chicago Fire vs Inter MiamiDouble chance · MLS10 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home or draw
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home or draw · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,079 picks · 64.6% · -5.20%won
    • SoloPredictsolopredict203 picks · 76.8% · +2.48%1.36won
    • Bonjornooddspedianot enough tracked yet1.50won
  • Derby County vs West BromwichMatch winner · Championship9 Sept 2026landed
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

  • Al Mokawloon vs Al Ahly CairoMatch winner · Premier League9 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,079 picks · 64.6% · -5.20%lost
    • SoloPredictsolopredict203 picks · 76.8% · +2.48%1.39lost
    • haalbakaroddspedianot enough tracked yet1.35lost
  • Twente vs TelstarMatch winner · Premier League9 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Al-Kholood vs Al-Shabab RiyadhOver/Under · Premier League9 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Enszi Diamondblogabet132 picks · 54.5% · +5.99%1.80lost
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%2.81won
    • ThugLifeTipsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.71won
  • Daejeon Citizen vs AnyangMatch winner · Superleague9 Sept 2026landed
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Cuiaba vs Athletic Minas GeraisAsian handicap · Serie B8 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • cqc2003Nblogabet96 picks · 49.0% · -9.89%1.91lost
    • Brasilblogabet38 picks · 55.3% · +6.12%1.93lost
    • TipsterLennonblogabet34 picks · 70.6% · +41.65%2.10lost
  • Millwall vs NewcastleMatch winner · League Cup. Third round8 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

  • Bolton Wanderers vs West HamMatch winner · Championship8 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

  • Al-Ittihad Jeddah vs Al-FayhaOver/Under · Premier League8 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Vatcheblogabet87 picks · 48.3% · -7.29%7.00lost
    • Greimanblogabet80 picks · 61.3% · +18.98%1.91lost
    • Greimanblogabet80 picks · 61.3% · +18.98%1.85lost
  • Smouha vs Ceramika CleopatraMatch winner · Premier League8 Sept 2026missed
    0pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,174 picks · 43.6% · -6.46%lost
    • Nasusblogabet46 picks · 39.1% · +18.13%2.78lost
    • @Tzoneplugblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.75lost
  • NEC Nijmegen vs ExcelsiorMatch winner · Premier League8 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Lille U19 vs Betis U19Asian handicap · U19. League phase8 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Bronze Maison Clubblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.85lost
    • Bronze Maison Clubblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.85lost
    • toquerothebossblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.98void
  • Emelec vs MantaMatch winner · Premier League8 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Estoril vs AroucaOver/Under · Premier League7 Sept 2026missed
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • SoloPredictsolopredict203 picks · 76.8% · +2.48%1.22lost
    • Epimitheasblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.69lost
    • Epimitheasblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.82lost
  • Halifax Wanderers vs CavalryMatch winner · Premier League7 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

  • Palermo vs SampdoriaMatch winner · Serie B7 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Cruzeiro vs Atletico ParanaenseMatch winner · Serie A6 Sept 2026missed
    0pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,174 picks · 43.6% · -6.46%lost
    • Sports Picks 23blogabet45 picks · 31.1% · +11.82%2.91lost
    • Vinnyrichoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.50lost
  • Espanyol vs SevillaBoth teams to score · Primera Division. Season 26/276 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Yes
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Yes · 3

    • Mazuryoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00won
    • Tomasz Kowalewskizawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.88won
    • XSlaidoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.85won
  • Marseille vs Paris FCMatch winner · Ligue 1. Season 26/276 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico GrauMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026landed
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Celje vs KoperMatch winner · Superleague6 Sept 2026missed
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,174 picks · 43.6% · -6.46%lost
    • Barbapapaoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00lost
    • Football Bombsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.99lost
  • Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa PiaMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+16.92%

3,878 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.83%

766 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.5%]

3,878 graded

Rest win rate

47.9%

95% CI [44.4%, 51.5%]

766 graded

The most-backed selection yields +16.9% over 3,878 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.8% over 766 priced picks. The gap between them is +14.1%, but its 95% interval spans -19.2% to +47.4% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.4% over 31,043 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 4.5 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -7.9% to +16.9% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.1% to +15.8%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 759 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.4% of the settled corpus — 22,543 of 41,440 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,480
21,559
3771
4443
5325
6192
7143
8102
982
1052
1150
1247
1337
1434
1528
1624
1716
1811
1917
2013
219
224
237
249
253
263
276
286
295
305
312
323
331
344
353
363
371
381
391
400
411
420
431
441
450
462
470
480
491
501
510
521
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise663+19.31%+0.49%
4–5within noise426-7.23%+18.26%
6+within noise257+31.38%+0.01%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise640+11.85%+9.28%
Over/Underwithin noise476+20.28%-2.74%
Asian handicapwithin noise168+13.21%+9.58%
Asian over underwithin noise23-9.92%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise14-70.43%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources849+23.96%-24.52%
Within one source497+9.28%+51.63%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 19:41 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows