When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,340
Tipsters
757
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.4%
  • Fuerte San Francisco vs Isidro MetapanOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%1.85lost
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%1.82lost
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%2.73lost
    • imperoBetblogabet63 picks · 55.6% · +9.80%1.94lost
  • Chapecoense vs BahiaMatch winner · Serie Adate unverifiedmissed
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Chelsea vs Luton TownOver/Under · League Cup. Second rounddate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%2.05lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%4.76lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.67void
    • Soldier Boyblogabet68 picks · 48.5% · -6.34%1.81lost
  • Sion vs NoahMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second legdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Cienciano vs Deportivo GarcilasoAsian handicap · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    • @BeSmartblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.57void
    • @BeSmartblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.11won
    • @BeSmartblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.64won
    • @BeSmartblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.85won
  • Deportivo La Coruna vs ValenciaAsian handicap · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Always Ready vs Real PotosiAsian handicap · Primera divisiondate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Vamos Rafablogabet90 picks · 56.7% · +4.72%1.86lost
    • Vamos Rafablogabet90 picks · 56.7% · +4.72%1.85lost
    • Zyskblogabet56 picks · 58.9% · +18.55%1.86lost
    • Lord of Ruinsblogabet37 picks · 43.2% · -15.35%1.85lost
  • Fortuna Sittard vs AZ AlkmaarOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissed
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%1.98lost
    • vegnes2277asianbookie183 picks · 54.1% · -19.93%1.98lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.98lost
    • Sebastian 99blogabet34 picks · 67.6% · +21.48%1.75lost
  • Sarpsborg 08 vs SandefjordMatch winner · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissed
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Deportivo Recoleta vs 2 de MayoOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Parma vs CagliariOver/Under · Serie A. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.85lost
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.83won
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%2.03lost
    • Celedaasianbookie70 picks · 48.6% · -6.36%1.85lost
  • Benfica vs AGF AarhusAsian handicap · Qualifying stage. Final. First legdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysOver/Under · MLBdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 4

    • American Fancyblogabet114 picks · 52.6% · +5.11%1.78won
    • Nostra_Quantblogabet95 picks · 50.5% · +1.98%1.95lost
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.56won
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.58won
  • Gornik Zabrze vs MonacoOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. First legdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • PippiBetblogabet97 picks · 43.3% · -8.49%2.27void
    • cornel88blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.00won
    • cornel88blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.17won
    • cornel88blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.73won
  • New York City vs Philadelphia UnionOver/Under · MLSdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • kingbettingsblogabet95 picks · 48.4% · -1.71%1.67won
    • Archer S.blogabet61 picks · 36.1% · -18.25%2.66won
    • Archer S.blogabet61 picks · 36.1% · -18.25%2.45won
    • hollowjimasianbookienot enough tracked yet1.83won
  • Munich 1860 vs Holstein KielOver/Under · Cup. First rounddate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 4

    • Jov135asianbookie428 picks · 53.0% · -34.09%1.93won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie183 picks · 54.1% · -19.93%1.93won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.93won
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.93won
  • Braga vs Vitoria GuimaraesOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Cleakblogabet85 picks · 60.0% · +19.31%2.13lost
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.72won
    • WinTeamblogabet37 picks · 56.8% · +10.51%1.81lost
    • JCFC86blogabet32 picks · 46.9% · -0.38%1.81lost
  • Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla KrakowOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Gaarfieldblogabet65 picks · 43.1% · -10.15%4.66lost
    • Gaarfieldblogabet65 picks · 43.1% · -10.15%2.58won
    • loving-betting-liveblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.81lost
    • loving-betting-liveblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80lost
  • Auxerre vs AngersMatch winner · Ligue 1. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,172 picks · 43.6% · -6.42%lost
    • PastoRoi (100% Pinnacle)blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.27lost
    • PastoRoi (100% Pinnacle)blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.10lost
    • PastoRoi (100% Pinnacle)blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.19lost
  • Panathinaikos vs KifisiaOver/Under · Superleague 1date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,076 picks · 64.5% · -5.24%won
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.08lost
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.17won
    • LMBblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.05lost
  • Porto vs AroucaOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • suikoden5blogabet53 picks · 43.4% · -8.66%1.50lost
    • Interfaceblogabet32 picks · 75.0% · +42.03%1.80won
    • loving-betting-liveblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.83won
    • loving-betting-liveblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.88won
  • Forfar vs Formartine UnitedAsian handicap · Challenge Cup. League phasedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Donio84blogabet127 picks · 63.8% · +25.35%1.83won
    • Ro-betblogabet112 picks · 50.9% · -2.60%1.98won
    • Ro-betblogabet112 picks · 50.9% · -2.60%1.98won
    • ritzblogabet46 picks · 60.9% · +8.24%1.78won
  • Talleres Cordoba vs Rosario CentralOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Freiburg vs MotherwellAsian handicap · Qualifying stage. Final. Second legdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%2.07won
    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.50lost
    • Fullbets365blogabet64 picks · 70.3% · +63.45%1.83won
    • necujniblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.07lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+16.87%

3,860 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+3.03%

765 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.8%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,860 graded

Rest win rate

48.1%

95% CI [44.6%, 51.6%]

765 graded

The most-backed selection yields +16.9% over 3,860 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +3.0% over 765 priced picks. The gap between them is +13.8%, but its 95% interval spans -19.4% to +47.1% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.5% over 30,988 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 4.4 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -8.0% to +16.9% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.1% to +15.8%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 757 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.4% of the settled corpus — 22,492 of 41,365 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,477
21,560
3769
4444
5324
6192
7142
8102
983
1052
1151
1245
1337
1435
1525
1624
1716
1811
1916
2014
219
224
237
249
253
263
276
286
295
306
311
323
331
344
353
363
371
381
391
400
411
420
431
441
450
462
470
480
492
500
510
521
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise663+19.44%+2.88%
4–5within noise423-7.26%+17.94%
6+within noise254+31.21%-0.15%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise637+11.48%+9.38%
Over/Underwithin noise475+20.10%-2.59%
Asian handicapwithin noise167+13.98%+10.71%
Asian over underwithin noise23-9.92%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources845+23.88%-24.50%
Within one source495+9.31%+52.03%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 17:15 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows