When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,340
Tipsters
757
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.4%
  • Ludogorets Razgrad vs Botev PlovdivOver/Under · League 115 Aug 2026missed
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Desirreoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.62lost
    • Real FC Betting Tipsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.75lost
    • Snickers.blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.77lost
    • Snickers.blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.75lost
  • Deportiva Tarma vs Alianza AtleticoAsian handicap · Premier League15 Aug 2026landedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Onlyprofit✅✅blogabet100 picks · 58.0% · +3.45%1.78won
    • QUIMICOblogabet69 picks · 52.2% · +6.59%1.93won
    • n30alb3rtblogabet32 picks · 50.0% · -8.90%1.61won
    • Anubisblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.83lost
  • Hajduk Split vs Zalgiris VilniusMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg13 Aug 2026landed
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Dinamo Minsk vs BragaMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg13 Aug 2026missed
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Universitatea Craiova vs KuPS KuopioMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg13 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Copenhagen vs Debreceni VSCMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg12 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Rapid Vienna vs Paide LinnameeskondMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg12 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Kauno Zalgiris vs Dinamo ZagrebMatch winner · Third qualifying round. Second leg11 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Union Santa Fe vs Central Cordoba SdEMatch winner · Premier League11 Aug 2026missed
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Plymouth Argyle vs Exeter CityMatch winner · League Cup. First round10 Aug 2026landed
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Sirius vs BrommapojkarnaMatch winner · Premier League10 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Benfica vs Academico ViseuMatch winner · Premier League9 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Levadia Tallinn vs Nomme UnitedMatch winner · Superleague9 Aug 2026landed
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • PEC Zwolle vs AjaxMatch winner · Premier League9 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den HaagMatch winner · Premier League8 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • NEC Nijmegen vs TelstarMatch winner · Premier League8 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Wolverhampton vs Port ValeMatch winner · League Cup. First round7 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

  • Valur Reykjavik vs NordsjaellandMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026landed
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Debreceni VSC vs CopenhagenMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026landed
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

  • Ajax vs ShelbourneOver/Under · Third qualifying round. First legdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Raven25blogabet85 picks · 54.1% · +2.84%1.62lost
    • vvvinnncblogabet37 picks · 40.5% · -30.48%1.30lost
    • vvvinnncblogabet37 picks · 40.5% · -30.48%1.90lost
    • bobicblogabet36 picks · 63.9% · +36.91%2.04lost
  • Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta BravesOver/Under · MLBdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

  • Hafnarfjordur vs KR ReykjavikOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Sheriff Woodyblogabet91 picks · 63.7% · +95.27%1.86won
    • Sheriff Woodyblogabet91 picks · 63.7% · +95.27%1.83won
    • BetCornersProblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.25lost
    • BetCornersProblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.91lost
  • Sevilla vs Rayo VallecanoOver/Under · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%2.04won
    • botmlbblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.46won
    • Learnn From The Druidblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.70won
    • valpapicksblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.73lost
  • Al Ahly Cairo vs ENPPIAsian handicap · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Vatcheblogabet87 picks · 48.3% · -7.29%2.05won
    • Vatcheblogabet87 picks · 48.3% · -7.29%1.80void
    • Vatcheblogabet87 picks · 48.3% · -7.29%1.83void
    • Arabic Leagues ✅blogabet35 picks · 65.7% · +17.46%1.65won
  • Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland GuardiansOver/Under · MLBdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 4

    • American Fancyblogabet114 picks · 52.6% · +5.11%1.77won
    • Arvis Petunovsblogabet61 picks · 42.6% · -22.74%1.82won
    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%1.78won
    • MLB Destroyerblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.96lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+18.79%

3,860 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+3.03%

765 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,860 graded

Rest win rate

48.1%

95% CI [44.6%, 51.6%]

765 graded

The most-backed selection yields +18.8% over 3,860 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +3.0% over 765 priced picks. The gap between them is +15.8%, but its 95% interval spans -17.3% to +48.9% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.7% over 30,943 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.1 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.9% to +18.1% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.4% to +16.0%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 757 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.4% of the settled corpus — 22,465 of 41,299 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,467
21,559
3770
4442
5324
6191
7141
8104
984
1051
1150
1245
1337
1435
1525
1624
1716
1811
1916
2014
219
224
237
249
253
263
276
286
295
306
311
323
331
344
353
363
371
381
391
400
411
420
431
441
451
461
470
480
492
500
510
521
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise662+19.23%+4.07%
4–5within noise424-6.97%+16.60%
6+within noise254+36.30%-0.15%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise637+11.48%+9.38%
Over/Underwithin noise475+23.05%-2.59%
Asian handicapwithin noise167+14.01%+10.71%
Asian over underwithin noise23-9.92%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources845+27.87%-24.50%
Within one source495+9.31%+52.03%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 16:24 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows