When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,326
Tipsters
750
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.5%
  • Jeunesse Esch vs Atert BissenMatch winner · Division Nationale9 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,159 picks · 43.5% · -6.73%lost
    • LuxProBetblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.30lost

    Away · 1

  • Anderlecht vs La LouviereMatch winner · Premier League9 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Hradec Kralove vs Banik OstravaMatch winner · Superleague9 Aug 2026landed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

    • Diegito76blogabet30 picks · 20.0% · -37.67%3.20lost
  • Wolfsburg vs KaiserslauternMatch winner · Bundesliga 28 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Spartak Trnava vs Dukla Banska BystricaMatch winner · Superleague8 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • AFC Wimbledon vs Newport CountyMatch winner · League Cup. First round8 Aug 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,159 picks · 43.5% · -6.73%lost
    • Pandatipsoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.70lost

    Draw · 1

  • Sandefjord vs KFUM OsloMatch winner · Superleague7 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%2.06lost
    • 7fellowblogabet37 picks · 51.4% · -4.24%2.26lost

    Draw · 1

  • Diablos Rojos vs Freseros de IrapuatoOver/Under · LNBP7 Aug 2026missedone source
    -14pp3 tips
    Under
    tipsters66.7%
    stake52.4%
    Over
    tipsters33.3%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Under · 2

    Over · 1

  • Diablos Rojos vs Freseros de IrapuatoHandicap · LNBP7 Aug 2026landedone source
    -19pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake47.4%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake52.6%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

  • Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota TwinsMatch winner · MLB6 Aug 2026landedone source
    -14pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake52.4%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.33won
    • Tips The 6 Caminosblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.83lost

    Away · 1

  • Svitolina E vs Potapova AMatch winner · Toronto. Hard6 Aug 2026landed
    -58pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake9.1%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake90.9%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • NALI QUEENblogabet114 picks · 58.8% · -10.82%1.40won
    • Rickfutirocert0oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.40won

    Away · 1

  • Hradec Kralove vs BesiktasDouble chance · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Draw or away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home or draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw or away · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,051 picks · 64.6% · -5.26%won
    • Rickfutirocert0oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.25won

    Home or draw · 1

    • folermordoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.88lost
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA SofiaMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%2.05lost
    • folermordoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00lost

    Draw · 1

  • Gibson T vs Alexandrova EMatch winner · Toronto. Hard6 Aug 2026landed
    -67pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Forebet Algorithmforebet32 picks · 59.4% · +15.31%won
    • Rickfutirocert0oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.60won

    Home · 1

  • Carabobo vs TrujillanosMatch winner · Primera Division. Group stage4 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • CFR Cluj vs TromsoOver/Under · Third qualifying round. First legdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake66.7%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    Under · 1

    • Ro-betblogabet108 picks · 52.8% · +1.01%1.75lost
  • Yanbian Longding vs Shenzhen JuniorsOver/Under · League 1date unverifiedmissedone source
    +24pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake90.5%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake9.5%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • kingbettingsblogabet95 picks · 48.4% · -1.71%2.19lost
    • BMO Footballblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.98lost

    Under · 1

    • Hubsiblogabet48 picks · 37.5% · +4.59%1.83won
  • Hafnarfjordur vs KR ReykjavikMatch winner · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissed
    -67pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

    • Snawksblogabet37 picks · 21.6% · -41.89%2.88lost
  • Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora CochabambaMatch winner · Primera divisiondate unverifiedmissed
    -67pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

    • Snawksblogabet37 picks · 21.6% · -41.89%2.38lost
  • Kairat Almaty vs Levski SofiaOver/Under · Third qualifying round. Second legdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake66.7%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%2.75lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.89lost

    Under · 1

  • Las Vegas Lights vs Oakland RootsMatch winner · USLdate unverifiedmissed
    +33pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • BetBoard Xblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.14lost
    • ProTaskblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.14lost

    Home · 1

  • Washington Mystics (w) vs Dallas Wings (w)Match winner · WNBAdate unverifiedlanded
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Tarup-Paarup vs VejleOver/Under · Cup. Round of 128date unverifiedlandedone source
    -17pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake50.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • KolpyBetblogabet45 picks · 62.2% · +7.16%1.54lost
    • KolpyBetblogabet45 picks · 62.2% · +7.16%1.55won

    Under · 1

  • Real Madrid vs Real SociedadAsian handicap · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    +20pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake87.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake13.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • Nikitasblogabet40 picks · 65.0% · -7.06%1.36void
  • FK Bodo/Glimt vs Union Saint-GilloiseOver/Under · Qualifyingdate unverifiedlandedone source
    +13pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake80.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake20.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    Under · 1

How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+19.16%

3,791 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.32%

755 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.5%]

3,791 graded

Rest win rate

47.7%

95% CI [44.1%, 51.2%]

755 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.2% over 3,791 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.3% over 755 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.8%, but its 95% interval spans -16.7% to +50.4% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,476 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.3 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.9% to +18.5% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 750 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.5% of the settled corpus — 22,226 of 40,748 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,449
21,556
3760
4438
5318
6197
7138
8100
983
1049
1151
1244
1336
1434
1524
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
219
224
238
249
253
265
275
287
295
306
311
323
330
344
352
363
372
381
391
400
412
420
431
441
450
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise659+22.31%+2.17%
4–5within noise417-9.06%+14.98%
6+within noise250+36.71%-0.24%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise635+11.02%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise472+23.61%-2.93%
Asian handicapwithin noise160+13.76%+6.39%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources840+28.18%-24.80%
Within one source486+9.79%+51.83%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 05:30 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows