When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,332
Tipsters
756
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.4%
  • Independiente Petrolero vs Aurora CochabambaMatch winner · Primera divisiondate unverifiedmissed
    -67pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

    • Snawksblogabet37 picks · 21.6% · -41.89%2.38lost
  • Kairat Almaty vs Levski SofiaOver/Under · Third qualifying round. Second legdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake66.7%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%2.75lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.89lost

    Under · 1

  • Las Vegas Lights vs Oakland RootsMatch winner · USLdate unverifiedmissed
    +33pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • BetBoard Xblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.14lost
    • ProTaskblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.14lost

    Home · 1

  • Washington Mystics (w) vs Dallas Wings (w)Match winner · WNBAdate unverifiedlanded
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Tarup-Paarup vs VejleOver/Under · Cup. Round of 128date unverifiedlandedone source
    -17pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake50.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • KolpyBetblogabet45 picks · 62.2% · +7.16%1.54lost
    • KolpyBetblogabet45 picks · 62.2% · +7.16%1.55won

    Under · 1

  • Real Madrid vs Real SociedadAsian handicap · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    +20pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake87.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake13.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • Nikitasblogabet40 picks · 65.0% · -7.06%1.36void
  • FK Bodo/Glimt vs Union Saint-GilloiseOver/Under · Qualifyingdate unverifiedlandedone source
    +13pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake80.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake20.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    Under · 1

  • Sogdiana vs Qizilqum ZarafshonMatch winner · Superleaguedate unverifiedlanded
    +3pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake70.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake30.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

    • allessio82blogabet66 picks · 37.9% · -9.00%3.62lost
  • Ljungskile vs OddevoldMatch winner · League 1date unverifiedlanded
    +33pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    • Tardifblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.38lost
    • Tardifblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.29won

    Home · 1

  • Ajax vs HeerenveenOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlanded
    +16pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake82.8%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake17.2%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • PropBetsblogabet36 picks · 69.4% · +33.39%1.82lost
    • Interfaceblogabet32 picks · 75.0% · +42.03%1.91won

    Under · 1

    • hollowjimasianbookienot enough tracked yet2.05lost
  • Cuiaba vs GoiasOver/Under · Serie Bdate unverifiedlandedone source
    -24pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake42.9%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake57.1%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • PippiBetblogabet97 picks · 43.3% · -8.49%1.54won
    • imperoBetblogabet63 picks · 55.6% · +9.80%2.76won

    Under · 1

  • Sirius vs BrommapojkarnaAsian handicap · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    +10pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake76.9%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake23.1%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Ray98blogabet84 picks · 63.1% · +7.49%2.05lost
    • Ray98blogabet84 picks · 63.1% · +7.49%1.57lost

    Away · 1

  • Sirius vs BrommapojkarnaOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedvoidone source
    -27pp3 tips
    Under
    tipsters66.7%
    stake40.0%
    Over
    tipsters33.3%
    stake60.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 2

    • AlienPickblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.53void
    • AlienPickblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.53void

    Over · 1

  • Decic Tuzi vs BokeljMatch winner · League 1date unverifiedlanded
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Atlanta Braves vs Colorado RockiesMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    -22pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake44.4%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake55.6%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego PadresMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    +33pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

  • Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red SoxOver/Under · MLBdate unverifiedmissedone source
    +20pp3 tips
    Under
    tipsters66.7%
    stake87.0%
    Over
    tipsters33.3%
    stake13.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 2

    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%1.95lost
    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%1.95void

    Over · 1

  • Botosani vs HunedoaraOver/Under · League 1date unverifiedlandedone source
    -8pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake58.3%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake41.7%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    Under · 1

    • Ro-betblogabet112 picks · 50.9% · -2.60%1.90won
  • Eibar vs TenerifeAsian handicap · Segunda Divisiondate unverifiedmissedone source
    -7pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake60.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake40.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • oneOFU.sblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.86won
  • Chicago Sky (w) vs Golden State Valkyries (w)Asian handicap · WNBAdate unverifiedmissedone source
    -30pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake36.4%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake63.6%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Ialysos17.blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.21lost
    • Ialysos17.blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.86lost

    Home · 1

    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%1.80won
  • Laval vs NantesMatch winner · Ligue 2date unverifiedmissed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,055 picks · 64.6% · -5.19%lost
    • TicketWonkladionicanot enough tracked yet1.98lost

    Draw · 1

  • Everton vs Crystal PalaceMatch winner · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    +33pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    Home · 1

    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%2.33won
  • Everton vs Crystal PalaceHandicap · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    -14pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake52.4%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

    • 032tipsterblogabet55 picks · 65.5% · +11.27%1.89won
  • Real Madrid vs MalagaHandicap · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake66.7%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • ProMasPicksblogabet54 picks · 40.7% · +52.46%11.00won
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+19.11%

3,820 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.78%

765 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,820 graded

Rest win rate

48.0%

95% CI [44.5%, 51.5%]

765 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.1% over 3,820 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.8% over 765 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.3%, but its 95% interval spans -16.9% to +49.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.8% over 30,689 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.3 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.8% to +18.4% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 756 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.4% of the settled corpus — 22,310 of 40,983 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,460
21,556
3762
4435
5321
6192
7143
8104
981
1050
1149
1246
1336
1435
1524
1624
1715
1811
1916
2013
219
224
237
2410
253
264
275
286
295
306
311
325
330
344
352
363
371
381
391
400
412
421
430
441
451
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise659+22.04%+1.08%
4–5within noise421-9.08%+17.94%
6+within noise252+36.72%-0.13%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise637+11.12%+9.43%
Over/Underwithin noise472+23.45%-2.74%
Asian handicapwithin noise164+14.30%+8.87%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources842+28.00%-24.47%
Within one source490+9.87%+51.77%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 06:17 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows