When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,325
Tipsters
750
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.6%
  • Cincinnati Reds vs Miami MarlinsMatch winner · MLB16 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Baniyas vs Al Ain Abu DhabiMatch winner · Premier League16 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Santiago Wanderers vs Puerto MonttMatch winner · Serie B16 Aug 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

    • MERLIHoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.10won
  • Molde vs TromsoMatch winner · Superleague16 Aug 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

    • kinzuoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.08won
  • Houston Dynamo vs LA GalaxyMatch winner · MLS16 Aug 2026landed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • nosignal91blogabet100 picks · 45.0% · -9.07%4.75lost
  • Widzew Lodz vs Korona KielceMatch winner · Superleague15 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,045 picks · 64.5% · -5.34%lost
    • vskisblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.15lost

    Draw · 1

  • Real Pilar vs Deportivo FlandriaMatch winner · Primera B Metropolitana15 Aug 2026missed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • ProTaskblogabetnot enough tracked yet7.41lost
  • Alaves vs GetafeMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/2715 Aug 2026landed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • Just Bet Itblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.64lost
  • Norwich City vs West BromwichMatch winner · Championship15 Aug 2026missed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Brackley Town vs Hebburn TownMatch winner · National league. North15 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Japan vs South KoreaAsian handicap · Friendly15 Aug 2026missedone source
    -17pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake50.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • karismablogabet45 picks · 62.2% · +27.13%1.89lost
    • 1basket1dayblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.74lost

    Home · 1

    • VALUE M.blogabet75 picks · 61.3% · +17.81%1.84won
  • Arges Pitesti vs Farul ConstantaMatch winner · League 114 Aug 2026missed
    -17pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake50.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,155 picks · 43.4% · -6.85%lost
    • Ferrari☑️Pinnacle☑️ Picksblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.54lost

    Draw · 1

    • Diegito76blogabet30 picks · 20.0% · -37.67%3.10won
  • Heracles Almelo vs Den BoschMatch winner · Division 114 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • NAC Breda vs VVV-VenloMatch winner · Division 114 Aug 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Villefranche vs Paris 13Match winner · Ligue 314 Aug 2026landed
    -10pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake57.1%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake42.9%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Viborg vs AGF AarhusMatch winner · Superleague14 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Al Nasr Dubai vs Al Ittihad KalbaMatch winner · Premier League14 Aug 2026missed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Pafos vs SalzburgMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg13 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • ProSoccerprosoccer147 picks · 67.3% · +0.96%2.10lost
    • Yanus Ritterblogabet79 picks · 59.5% · +3.25%1.53won

    Draw · 1

  • Hammarby vs Rakow CzestochowaMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg13 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Yanus Ritterblogabet79 picks · 59.5% · +3.25%1.65lost
    • AWGNNEoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.75lost

    Draw · 1

  • Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red SoxMatch winner · MLB12 Aug 2026landedone source
    -14pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake52.4%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • NEC Nijmegen vs Olympiacos PiraeusMatch winner · Third qualifying round. Second leg11 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    Away · 1

    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%2.61lost
  • Goias vs LondrinaAsian handicap · Serie B10 Aug 2026landedone source
    +12pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake78.9%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake21.1%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • Spanisherblogabet38 picks · 34.2% · -31.75%1.93won
  • Goias vs LondrinaMatch winner · Serie B10 Aug 2026missed
    -17pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake50.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    Home · 1

    • Brazilian League'sblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80won
  • Vasteras vs DjurgardensMatch winner · Premier League10 Aug 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Colon Santa Fe vs Atletico San TelmoMatch winner · Primera Nacional9 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+19.18%

3,789 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.32%

755 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.5%]

3,789 graded

Rest win rate

47.7%

95% CI [44.1%, 51.2%]

755 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.2% over 3,789 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.3% over 755 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.9%, but its 95% interval spans -16.7% to +50.4% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,440 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.3 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.9% to +18.5% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 750 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.6% of the settled corpus — 22,205 of 40,699 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,450
21,549
3761
4436
5319
6196
7138
8100
983
1049
1151
1244
1336
1434
1524
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
219
224
238
249
253
266
275
286
295
306
311
323
330
344
352
363
372
381
391
400
412
420
431
441
450
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise658+22.36%+2.17%
4–5within noise417-9.06%+14.98%
6+within noise250+36.71%-0.24%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise634+11.05%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise472+23.61%-2.93%
Asian handicapwithin noise160+13.76%+6.39%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources839+28.22%-24.80%
Within one source486+9.79%+51.83%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 04:39 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows