When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,325
Tipsters
750
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.6%
  • Fortuna Sittard vs AZ AlkmaarMatch winner · Premier League22 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Al Duhail vs Al SailiyaOver/Under · Stars League22 Aug 2026missed
    -33pp3 tips
    Under
    tipsters66.7%
    stake33.3%
    Over
    tipsters33.3%
    stake66.7%
    Who backed this

    Under · 2

    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%2.05lost
    • SOCCERAIDENasianbookie36 picks · 55.6% · +7.31%2.05lost

    Over · 1

  • Swindon Town vs Cheltenham TownMatch winner · League 222 Aug 2026missedone source
    —3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    Home · 1

  • Bristol Rovers vs Newport CountyMatch winner · League 222 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%1.38lost
  • Arsenal vs Coventry CityAsian handicap · Premier League. Season 26/2721 Aug 2026landedone source
    -7pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake60.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake40.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • ChaosIsMe!blogabet44 picks · 50.0% · -0.95%1.80lost
  • Drogheda United vs Saint Patrick's AthleticAsian handicap · Premier League21 Aug 2026landedone source
    -25pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake41.2%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake58.8%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • mikechioda27blogabet54 picks · 51.9% · -2.85%1.68won
    • EdgeFinder12blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.90won

    Home · 1

    • MatchPriceblogabet33 picks · 45.5% · -11.27%2.20lost
  • Al-Qadsiah El-Khobar vs Al-Ittihad JeddahOver/Under · Premier League21 Aug 2026landedone source
    +29pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake95.2%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake4.8%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    Under · 1

    • sBetting365blogabet42 picks · 35.7% · -17.21%3.25lost
  • Fredericia vs Aarhus FremadMatch winner · 1st Division21 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Vejle vs EsbjergMatch winner · 1st Division21 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Boston Red Sox vs Arizona DiamondbacksMatch winner · MLB19 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

  • Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta BravesOver/Under · MLB19 Aug 2026missedone source
    +27pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake93.8%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake6.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • B. Tkachukblogabet89 picks · 36.0% · -21.14%1.83lost
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.56lost

    Under · 1

  • Vietnam vs MalaysiaAsian handicap · Semi-finals. Second leg19 Aug 2026landedone source
    +27pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake93.3%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake6.7%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Universidad Catolica vs Estudiantes La PlataMatch winner · Second leg19 Aug 2026missed
    -67pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,155 picks · 43.4% · -6.85%lost
    • IvanchoXXoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.00lost

    Away · 1

  • Sao Paulo vs BolivarMatch winner · Round of 16. Second leg19 Aug 2026landed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

  • Deportivo Recoleta vs Boca JuniorsOver/Under · Round of 16. Second leg18 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Pandos Worldinosblogabet81 picks · 61.7% · +25.33%6.01void
    • johnc14blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.89won

    Under · 1

    • dersmahoddspedianot enough tracked yet9.00lost
  • Independiente Rivadavia vs Fluminense RJMatch winner · Second leg18 Aug 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake66.7%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • RAP SPORTSblogabet44 picks · 40.9% · -17.57%1.67lost
    • RAP SPORTSblogabet44 picks · 40.9% · -17.57%1.67lost

    Draw · 1

  • Fenerbahce vs LyonMatch winner · Qualifying stage. Final. First leg18 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,155 picks · 43.4% · -6.85%won
    • IvanchoXXoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.60won

    Home · 1

    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%2.08lost
  • Fenerbahce vs LyonOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. First leg18 Aug 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake66.7%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Jov1972asianbookienot enough tracked yet1.93lost
    • TripleXasianbookienot enough tracked yet1.93lost

    Under · 1

    • TripleXasianbookienot enough tracked yet2.00won
  • Hapoel Rishon Lezion vs Hapoel Kfar SabaOver/Under · Liga Leumit18 Aug 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • black.swanblogabet93 picks · 39.8% · -17.53%2.03won
    • Pre-live HTblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.71lost

    Under · 1

    • ziopresoddspedianot enough tracked yet10.60lost
  • Hapoel Rishon Lezion vs Hapoel Kfar SabaAsian handicap · Liga Leumit18 Aug 2026landedone source
    +17pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake83.3%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake16.7%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • black.swanblogabet93 picks · 39.8% · -17.53%2.10won
  • Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Luis QuillotaMatch winner · Serie B17 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Dziugas Telsiai vs Suduva MarijampoleMatch winner · Premier League17 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,045 picks · 64.5% · -5.34%won
    • Lider75oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.80won

    Draw · 1

  • Seattle Sounders vs Vancouver WhitecapsOver/Under · MLS17 Aug 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • roxusblogabet32 picks · 43.8% · -22.60%1.93lost
    • hollowjimasianbookienot enough tracked yet1.98lost

    Under · 1

    • Dante7oddspedianot enough tracked yet10.00lost
  • Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City RoyalsMatch winner · MLB16 Aug 2026missed
    -33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake33.3%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake66.7%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.38lost
  • Union San Felipe vs CobreloaMatch winner · Serie B16 Aug 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

    • MERLIHoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.10lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+19.18%

3,789 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.32%

755 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.5%]

3,789 graded

Rest win rate

47.7%

95% CI [44.1%, 51.2%]

755 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.2% over 3,789 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.3% over 755 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.9%, but its 95% interval spans -16.7% to +50.4% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,440 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.3 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.9% to +18.5% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 750 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.6% of the settled corpus — 22,205 of 40,699 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,450
21,549
3761
4436
5319
6196
7138
8100
983
1049
1151
1244
1336
1434
1524
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
219
224
238
249
253
266
275
286
295
306
311
323
330
344
352
363
372
381
391
400
412
420
431
441
450
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise658+22.36%+2.17%
4–5within noise417-9.06%+14.98%
6+within noise250+36.71%-0.24%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise634+11.05%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise472+23.61%-2.93%
Asian handicapwithin noise160+13.76%+6.39%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources839+28.22%-24.80%
Within one source486+9.79%+51.83%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 03:58 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows