When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,314
Tipsters
747
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.7%
  • Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City RoyalsMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    -20pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake54.5%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake45.5%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,036 picks · 64.5% · -5.38%lost
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.19won
    • LMBblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.65lost

    Home · 1

    • Andrew Carterblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.76lost
  • Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa PiaAsian handicap · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    -6pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake68.8%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake31.3%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • JapanLoverblogabet94 picks · 51.1% · +7.91%1.78lost
    • JCFC86blogabet32 picks · 46.9% · -0.38%1.80lost
    • marrokinoblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.92lost

    Away · 1

    • MatchPriceblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.58won
  • Liverpool vs Nottingham ForestAsian handicap · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissedone source
    -6pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake68.8%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake31.3%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Enszi Diamondblogabet132 picks · 54.5% · +5.99%1.75lost
    • Mr. Reddingtonblogabet31 picks · 64.5% · +18.68%1.87lost
    • giorgos13blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.72lost

    Away · 1

    • johnc14blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.90won
  • Liverpool vs Nottingham ForestOver/Under · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedlanded
    +25pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Mattheus Xavierblogabet46 picks · 60.9% · +31.87%2.26won
    • pavel70blogabet39 picks · 71.8% · +31.57%3.13lost
    • TheAdvisorblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.72won

    Under · 1

    • jamakomoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.20won
  • Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs Ingolstadt 04Asian handicap · Bundesliga 3date unverifiedmissedone source
    -5pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake70.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake30.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • GermanRegioblogabet41 picks · 46.3% · -10.88%1.88lost
    • Benny1887blogabet35 picks · 45.7% · -11.48%1.74lost
    • the witcher 1blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80lost

    Away · 1

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.73won
  • Liverpool vs Atletico MadridAsian handicap · League phasedate unverifiedlandedone source
    -34pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake41.2%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake58.8%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.98won
    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.98won
    • LMGuerrablogabetnot enough tracked yet1.78won

    Away · 1

  • Napoli vs ArsenalAsian handicap · League phasedate unverifiedmissedone source
    -4pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake71.4%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake28.6%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

    • Gzuz187blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.95won
  • Espanyol vs SevillaMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedlanded
    -25pp4 tips
    Draw
    tipsters75.0%
    stake50.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,152 picks · 43.4% · -6.89%won
    • SaPariepopetteblogabet41 picks · 41.5% · +26.94%3.26won
    • Vinnyrichoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.20won

    Home · 1

    • Richard939blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.30lost
  • Dunkerque vs ClermontOver/Under · Ligue 2date unverifiedmissed
    -8pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake66.7%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.95lost
    • SoloPredictsolopredict201 picks · 76.6% · +2.32%1.21won
    • goodyear1asianbookie160 picks · 58.8% · +70.03%1.95lost

    Under · 1

    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%1.93won
  • Wolfsburg vs Energie CottbusMatch winner · Bundesliga 2date unverifiedmissed
    -38pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake37.5%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake62.5%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

    • LVbetsblogabet60 picks · 61.7% · +1.26%5.36lost
  • OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi BeogradMatch winner · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissed
    -50pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters50.0%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,036 picks · 64.5% · -5.38%lost
    • Cabreraoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.40lost

    Draw · 1

    Home · 1

    • Epimitheasblogabetnot enough tracked yet4.31won
  • San Diego vs San Jose EarthquakesOver/Under · MLSdate unverifiedmissed
    +25pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • win1706asianbookie291 picks · 58.8% · +52.79%1.90lost
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.90lost
    • goodyear1asianbookie160 picks · 58.8% · +70.03%1.90lost

    Over · 1

    • Yaw Guyoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.85won
  • Petrolul Ploiesti vs HunedoaraAsian handicap · League 1date unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Zyskblogabet56 picks · 58.9% · +18.55%2.08lost
    • Zyskblogabet56 picks · 58.9% · +18.55%2.43lost
    • Zyskblogabet56 picks · 58.9% · +18.55%1.93lost

    Home · 1

    • Zyskblogabet56 picks · 58.9% · +18.55%4.65won
  • Miami Marlins vs New York MetsMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    +8pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake83.3%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake16.7%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,036 picks · 64.5% · -5.38%won
    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%2.01won
    • LMBblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.09won

    Home · 1

  • Elversberg vs BayernAsian handicap · Bundesliga. Season 26/2713 Sept 2026landedone source
    +2pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake68.8%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake31.3%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • giorgos13blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.85won
    • Spartacus7blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.98lost

    Home · 1

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.70won
  • Port Vale vs Exeter CityAsian over under · League 212 Sept 2026landedone source
    -14pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake52.4%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Odborantblogabet69 picks · 55.1% · -0.97%1.76won
    • Odds Goalsblogabet52 picks · 53.8% · -1.38%1.95lost

    Under · 1

    • JUMANJ|blogabet55 picks · 61.8% · +16.65%2.09won
  • Al Sailiya vs Al SaddMatch winner · Stars League10 Sept 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

  • Al Shamal vs Al WakrahAsian handicap · Stars League10 Sept 2026landedone source
    +6pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake72.2%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake27.8%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

  • Santo Andre / Apaba U20 vs Sorocaba U20Handicap · U20. Paulista9 Sept 2026landedone source
    +25pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake91.7%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake8.3%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Gennadi Chalyblogabet86 picks · 61.6% · +38.01%1.83won
    • Karcs1blogabet60 picks · 51.7% · -2.60%1.83won

    Away · 1

    • Pinoneblogabet74 picks · 62.2% · +43.51%1.83lost
  • Levski Sofia vs CSKA SofiaOver/Under · Super Cup. Sofia9 Sept 2026landedone source
    +25pp3 tips
    Under
    tipsters66.7%
    stake91.7%
    Over
    tipsters33.3%
    stake8.3%
    Who backed this

    Under · 2

    Over · 1

  • Borussia Dortmund vs VillarrealDouble chance · League phase8 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home or draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw or away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home or draw · 2

    Draw or away · 1

    • x FreakZzawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.92lost
  • Southampton vs SwanseaOver/Under · Championship8 Sept 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.98won
    • bossbisoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.78won

    Under · 1

    • Carlos96oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.10lost
  • Watford vs Preston North EndMatch winner · Championship8 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,036 picks · 64.5% · -5.38%won
    • AandVoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.10won

    Draw · 1

  • Elche vs Real SociedadMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/277 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,152 picks · 43.4% · -6.89%lost
    • Mackintoshyoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.50lost

    Away · 1

    • ProSoccerprosoccer146 picks · 67.1% · +0.96%2.40won
  • Elche vs Real SociedadOver/Under · Primera Division. Season 26/277 Sept 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Penaldoasianbookie66 picks · 59.1% · +20.99%1.95won
    • XSlaidoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.80won

    Under · 1

    • Adarsh7oddspedianot enough tracked yet12.00lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+18.84%

3,747 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.04%

748 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

56.0%

95% CI [54.5%, 57.6%]

3,747 graded

Rest win rate

47.3%

95% CI [43.8%, 50.9%]

748 graded

The most-backed selection yields +18.8% over 3,747 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.0% over 748 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.8%, but its 95% interval spans -16.9% to +50.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,127 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 5.9 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -6.3% to +18.2% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.3%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 747 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.7% of the settled corpus — 22,047 of 40,333 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,447
21,550
3757
4431
5318
6192
7139
8102
982
1047
1149
1245
1337
1434
1523
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
2111
225
236
249
253
264
275
286
296
305
311
323
330
344
352
363
371
382
391
400
412
420
430
441
450
461
471
480
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise652+19.83%+3.47%
4–5within noise416-8.90%+15.12%
6+within noise246+37.70%-0.97%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise631+10.49%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise467+23.11%-3.33%
Asian handicapwithin noise159+14.82%+6.15%
Asian over underwithin noise20-11.32%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise14+49.04%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources833+28.45%-25.46%
Within one source481+8.79%+51.98%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-10 23:43 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows