When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,314
Tipsters
747
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.7%
  • Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv PlovdivMatch winner · League 1date unverifiedlanded
    -75pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Draw · 1

    • Snawksblogabet37 picks · 21.6% · -41.89%2.50lost
  • Parks A vs Eala AOver/Under · Toronto. Harddate unverifiedmissedone source
    +22pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake96.8%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake3.2%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • RAP SPORTSblogabet44 picks · 40.9% · -17.57%1.83lost
    • RAP SPORTSblogabet44 picks · 40.9% · -17.57%1.83lost
    • RAP SPORTSblogabet44 picks · 40.9% · -17.57%1.83lost

    Over · 1

    • NALI QUEENblogabet114 picks · 58.8% · -10.82%1.44won
  • Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing GuoanAsian handicap · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • henrylaiblogabet42 picks · 42.9% · -21.49%2.02lost
    • henrylaiblogabet42 picks · 42.9% · -21.49%1.86lost
    • henrylaiblogabet42 picks · 42.9% · -21.49%1.60lost

    Away · 1

  • Sochaux vs GuingampMatch winner · Ligue 2date unverifiedlanded
    -2pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters50.0%
    stake47.6%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake4.8%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • PastoRoi (100% Pinnacle)blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.88lost

    Draw · 1

    • Nasusblogabet46 picks · 39.1% · +18.13%3.29lost
  • Cambuur vs FeyenoordOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlanded
    -32pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake42.9%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake57.1%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%1.98won
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.98won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.98won

    Under · 1

    • Everton Betsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.95lost
  • Motor Lublin vs GKS KatowiceOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    -25pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake50.0%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Gaarfieldblogabet64 picks · 43.8% · -9.26%2.12lost
    • Gaarfieldblogabet64 picks · 43.8% · -9.26%4.38lost
    • Gaarfieldblogabet64 picks · 43.8% · -9.26%2.48lost

    Under · 1

    • SpankyBetsblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.30won
  • Augsburg vs Schalke 04Match winner · Bundesliga. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    -33pp4 tips
    Draw
    tipsters50.0%
    stake16.7%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake16.7%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake66.7%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    Away · 1

    Home · 1

  • Waldhof Mannheim vs KaiserslauternOver/Under · Cup. First rounddate unverifiedmissed
    -4pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake70.6%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake29.4%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%1.93lost
    • Bricksblogabet66 picks · 68.2% · +27.72%1.81lost
    • SOCCERAIDENasianbookie36 picks · 55.6% · +7.31%1.93lost

    Under · 1

    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.93won
  • Texas Rangers vs Washington NationalsMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlandedone source
    +7pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake81.8%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake18.2%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.35lost
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.19won
    • Tommy171blogabet40 picks · 62.5% · +29.25%2.18won

    Home · 1

  • Greuther Furth vs BochumOver/Under · Cup. First rounddate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%1.95lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.95lost
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.95lost

    Over · 1

    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.88won
  • El Calor de Cancun vs Astros JaliscoOver/Under · LNBPdate unverifiedlandedone source
    -4pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake71.4%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake28.6%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    Over · 1

    • Suarez696blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.83lost
  • CSA Steaua Bucuresti vs ACS DumbravitaMatch winner · League 2date unverifiedmissedone source
    +10pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters50.0%
    stake60.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake12.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake28.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Ro-betblogabet108 picks · 52.8% · +1.01%4.50lost
    • GOAL RANGEblogabetnot enough tracked yet5.50lost

    Draw · 1

    • allessio82blogabet66 picks · 37.9% · -9.00%3.90won

    Home · 1

    • allessio82blogabet66 picks · 37.9% · -9.00%1.68lost
  • Miami Marlins vs Washington NationalsMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

  • Sitra vs MalkiyaMatch winner · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlanded
    +25pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Draw · 1

  • Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba OsakaOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%2.03lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%2.03lost
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%2.03lost

    Over · 1

    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.85won
  • Washington Nationals vs Colorado RockiesMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.28lost
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.14won
    • The Dugoutblogabet63 picks · 38.1% · -13.73%2.34won

    Home · 1

  • Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    -46pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake28.6%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake71.4%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%1.65won
  • Kataller Toyama vs ImabariOver/Under · Division 2date unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.93lost
    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%1.93lost
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%1.93lost

    Over · 1

    • Celedaasianbookie70 picks · 48.6% · -6.36%1.85won
  • Sheffield United vs Bolton WanderersOver/Under · Championshipdate unverifiedlanded
    +17pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake91.8%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake8.2%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    Under · 1

  • Real Potosi vs Real TomayapoOver/Under · Primera divisiondate unverifiedmissed
    -32pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake42.9%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake57.1%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • SoloPredictsolopredict201 picks · 76.6% · +2.32%1.41lost
    • man uasianbookie53 picks · 77.4% · +38.94%2.03lost
    • Mattheus Xavierblogabet46 picks · 60.9% · +31.87%2.26void

    Under · 1

  • Widzew Lodz vs Korona KielceAsian handicap · Cup. 1/32 Finalsdate unverifiedlandedone source
    -23pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake52.4%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

  • Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FCOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%1.88won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.88won
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.88won

    Under · 1

    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.95lost
  • Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon SangmuOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • win1706asianbookie291 picks · 58.8% · +52.79%1.80won
    • goodyear1asianbookie160 picks · 58.8% · +70.03%1.80won
    • 300358asianbookie61 picks · 60.7% · +17.79%1.80won

    Over · 1

    • 300358asianbookie61 picks · 60.7% · +17.79%2.03lost
  • Gangwon FC vs Jeonbuk MotorsOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • win1706asianbookie291 picks · 58.8% · +52.79%1.88won
    • goodyear1asianbookie160 picks · 58.8% · +70.03%1.88won
    • 300358asianbookie61 picks · 60.7% · +17.79%1.88won

    Over · 1

    • 300358asianbookie61 picks · 60.7% · +17.79%1.98lost
  • Heidenheim vs Dynamo DresdenOver/Under · Bundesliga 2date unverifiedlandedone source
    -11pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake64.3%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake35.7%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Bricksblogabet66 picks · 68.2% · +27.72%1.90won
    • ChaosIsMe!blogabet44 picks · 50.0% · -0.95%1.93won
    • pavel70blogabet39 picks · 71.8% · +31.57%1.99won

    Under · 1

How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+18.84%

3,747 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.04%

748 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

56.0%

95% CI [54.5%, 57.6%]

3,747 graded

Rest win rate

47.3%

95% CI [43.8%, 50.9%]

748 graded

The most-backed selection yields +18.8% over 3,747 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.0% over 748 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.8%, but its 95% interval spans -16.9% to +50.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,127 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 5.9 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -6.3% to +18.2% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.3%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 747 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.7% of the settled corpus — 22,045 of 40,331 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,447
21,549
3757
4431
5318
6192
7139
8102
982
1047
1149
1245
1337
1434
1523
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
2111
225
236
249
253
264
275
286
296
305
311
323
330
344
352
363
371
382
391
400
412
420
430
441
450
461
471
480
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise652+19.83%+3.47%
4–5within noise416-8.90%+15.12%
6+within noise246+37.70%-0.97%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise631+10.49%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise467+23.11%-3.33%
Asian handicapwithin noise159+14.82%+6.15%
Asian over underwithin noise20-11.32%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise14+49.04%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources833+28.45%-25.46%
Within one source481+8.79%+51.98%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-10 23:06 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows