When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,325
Tipsters
750
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.5%
  • Liverpool vs Atletico MadridOver/Under · League phase9 Sept 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Nik Galisblogabet86 picks · 55.8% · +4.87%1.91won
    • Alchimistblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.89won

    Under · 1

    • Tharushaoddspedianot enough tracked yet7.23lost
  • Levski Sofia vs CSKA SofiaOver/Under · Super Cup. Sofia9 Sept 2026landedone source
    +25pp3 tips
    Under
    tipsters66.7%
    stake91.7%
    Over
    tipsters33.3%
    stake8.3%
    Who backed this

    Under · 2

    Over · 1

  • Borussia Dortmund vs VillarrealDouble chance · League phase8 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home or draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw or away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home or draw · 2

    Draw or away · 1

    • x FreakZzawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.92lost
  • Southampton vs SwanseaOver/Under · Championship8 Sept 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.98won
    • bossbisoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.78won

    Under · 1

    • Carlos96oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.10lost
  • Watford vs Preston North EndMatch winner · Championship8 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,039 picks · 64.5% · -5.34%won
    • AandVoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.10won

    Draw · 1

  • Elche vs Real SociedadMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/277 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,154 picks · 43.5% · -6.80%lost
    • Mackintoshyoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.50lost

    Away · 1

    • ProSoccerprosoccer147 picks · 67.3% · +0.96%2.40won
  • Elche vs Real SociedadOver/Under · Primera Division. Season 26/277 Sept 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Penaldoasianbookie66 picks · 59.1% · +20.99%1.95won
    • XSlaidoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.80won

    Under · 1

    • Adarsh7oddspedianot enough tracked yet12.00lost
  • Estoril vs AroucaAsian handicap · Premier League7 Sept 2026landedone source
    -24pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake42.9%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake57.1%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • JCFC86blogabet32 picks · 46.9% · -0.38%1.78won
    • Michael2076blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80won

    Home · 1

    • mateuslimablogabet37 picks · 70.3% · +30.28%1.70won
  • Bromley vs AFC WimbledonOver/Under · League 17 Sept 2026landed
    -67pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • Book alexoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.98lost
    • gabrielmatteooddspedianot enough tracked yet1.30won

    Under · 1

    • Linerblogabet54 picks · 44.4% · -13.91%1.83won
  • Udinese vs LazioMatch winner · Serie A. Season 26/277 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,154 picks · 43.5% · -6.80%lost
    • Mackintoshyoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.00lost

    Home · 1

    • MightyTipsmightytips241 picks · 53.5% · -7.23%2.87lost
  • Udinese vs LazioDouble chance · Serie A. Season 26/277 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Draw or away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home or away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw or away · 2

    Home or away · 1

    • ProSoccerprosoccer147 picks · 67.3% · +0.96%won
  • Getafe vs CeltaDouble chance · Primera Division. Season 26/277 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Draw or away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home or draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Draw or away · 2

    Home or draw · 1

    • SoloPredictsolopredict201 picks · 76.6% · +2.32%1.35won
  • Seattle Mariners vs AthleticsMatch winner · MLB6 Sept 2026landed
    +33pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • LMBblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.73lost
    • LMBblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.03won

    Home · 1

  • Cremonese vs PadovaAsian handicap · Serie B6 Sept 2026landedone source
    +27pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake93.3%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake6.7%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • JapanLoverblogabet94 picks · 51.1% · +7.91%1.87won
    • BETOFTHEDAYblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.93won

    Away · 1

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%2.21lost
  • Cremonese vs PadovaMatch winner · Serie B6 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Home · 1

    • Brandon bikesoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.85lost
  • Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa PiaOver/Under · Premier League6 Sept 2026missed
    -67pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • SoloPredictsolopredict201 picks · 76.6% · +2.32%1.27lost
    • LarryCalargaoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.41lost

    Under · 1

    • PropBetsblogabet36 picks · 69.4% · +33.39%1.87lost
  • Hapoel Raanana vs Hapoel Kfar SabaAsian handicap · Liga Leumit6 Sept 2026landedone source
    -4pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake62.5%
    Home
    tipsters33.3%
    stake37.5%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • dedi22blogabet46 picks · 50.0% · +13.20%1.85won
    • dedi22blogabet46 picks · 50.0% · +13.20%1.98lost

    Home · 1

    • dedi22blogabet46 picks · 50.0% · +13.20%1.93won
  • Everton vs Manchester UnitedOver/Under · Premier League. Season 26/276 Sept 2026landed
    -33pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake33.3%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake66.7%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • jacksontiongasianbookie416 picks · 54.6% · +21.35%1.88won
    • Cryptic0oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.68won

    Under · 1

  • Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Red DiamondsOver/Under · Premier League6 Sept 2026missed
    -17pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters66.7%
    stake50.0%
    Under
    tipsters33.3%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 2

    • jacksontiongasianbookie416 picks · 54.6% · +21.35%2.00lost
    • Elitetip01oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.96lost

    Under · 1

    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.90won
  • Fluminense RJ vs Vasco da Gama RJMatch winner · Serie A6 Sept 2026landed
    -67pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • Djidjirusblogabet74 picks · 52.7% · +0.64%1.94won
  • Willem II vs ExcelsiorMatch winner · Premier League5 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,039 picks · 64.5% · -5.34%won
    • sergyoneoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.28won

    Draw · 1

  • Al-Ittihad Jeddah vs Al-Nassr RiyadhMatch winner · Premier League5 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,039 picks · 64.5% · -5.34%won
    • Tarzan 45oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.47won

    Draw · 1

    • Svcluboddspedianot enough tracked yet4.80lost
  • Stabaek vs MossMatch winner · Division 15 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    Away · 1

    • Tarzan 45oddspedianot enough tracked yet7.00won
  • Maritimo vs BenficaMatch winner · Premier League5 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters66.7%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

  • Fenerbahce vs BesiktasMatch winner · Superleague5 Sept 2026missed
    +33pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters66.7%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters33.3%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,039 picks · 64.5% · -5.34%lost
    • alex53blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80lost

    Draw · 1

    • Svcluboddspedianot enough tracked yet3.30lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+19.28%

3,788 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+1.97%

754 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

56.0%

95% CI [54.4%, 57.6%]

3,788 graded

Rest win rate

47.2%

95% CI [43.7%, 50.8%]

754 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.3% over 3,788 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.0% over 754 priced picks. The gap between them is +17.3%, but its 95% interval spans -16.2% to +50.8% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,431 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.4 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.8% to +18.6% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 750 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.5% of the settled corpus — 22,183 of 40,677 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,447
21,548
3761
4437
5319
6195
7138
8100
983
1049
1152
1244
1336
1434
1524
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
219
224
238
249
253
265
275
286
295
306
311
323
330
344
352
363
372
381
391
400
412
420
431
441
450
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise658+22.36%+2.17%
4–5within noise417-9.06%+14.98%
6+within noise250+36.97%-0.73%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise634+11.05%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise472+23.77%-3.42%
Asian handicapwithin noise160+13.76%+6.39%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources839+28.43%-25.38%
Within one source486+9.79%+51.83%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 00:29 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows