When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,314
Tipsters
747
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.7%
  • Cambuur vs FeyenoordMatch winner · Premier League23 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Draw · 1

  • Universidad Catolica Quito vs MantaAsian handicap · Premier League22 Aug 2026missedone source
    -17pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake58.3%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake41.7%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Bruce Wayne Jrblogabet98 picks · 46.9% · -8.02%1.79lost
    • JaMsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.99lost
    • JaMsblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.07lost

    Away · 1

    • oneOFU.sblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.90won
  • Levski Sofia vs Spartak VarnaMatch winner · League 122 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

  • Valencia vs CeltaMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/2722 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters50.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • ClintEastoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.50lost
    • KennyCln19oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.15lost

    Away · 1

    • Swagsybeeoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.05lost

    Draw · 1

  • Preston North End vs WolverhamptonMatch winner · Championship22 Aug 2026landed
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

  • Atletico Mineiro vs BragantinoMatch winner · Round of 16. Second leg19 Aug 2026landed
    +50pp4 tips
    Draw
    tipsters50.0%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 2

    Away · 1

    Home · 1

  • Horsham vs Hampton and Richmond BoroughMatch winner · National League. South18 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters50.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,034 picks · 64.5% · -5.37%won
    • samrexoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.90won

    Away · 1

    Draw · 1

  • Hemel Hempstead Town vs Maidenhead UnitedMatch winner · National League. South18 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters50.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,034 picks · 64.5% · -5.37%lost
    • Tennis coachoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.20lost

    Away · 1

    Draw · 1

  • Zalaegerszeg vs FerencvarosMatch winner · National League17 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters50.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

    Home · 1

  • San Francisco Giants vs Colorado RockiesMatch winner · MLB16 Aug 2026missed
    +5pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake80.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake20.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,034 picks · 64.5% · -5.37%lost
    • Arvis Petunovsblogabet61 picks · 42.6% · -22.74%1.79lost
    • GOOD NEWS SPORTS PICKSblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.79lost

    Away · 1

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.18won
  • Lens vs PSGMatch winner · Super Cup. Lens16 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • MightyTipsmightytips239 picks · 54.0% · -6.45%1.62lost
    • Daniiiskoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.71lost
    • Mateusz Wantowskizawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.70lost

    Draw · 1

    • Dyshaoddspedianot enough tracked yet4.00lost
  • Espanyol vs LevanteOver/Under · Primera Division. Season 26/2716 Aug 2026missed
    +25pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • Istambul.betblogabet72 picks · 50.0% · +6.78%1.67lost
    • GoatShadowoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.70lost
    • sempretuniblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.83lost

    Over · 1

    • Filo252oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.07won
  • Kalmar FF vs HammarbyMatch winner · Premier League16 Aug 2026landed
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

  • Wolverhampton vs Blackburn RoversMatch winner · Championship14 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

  • Rangers vs Jagiellonia BialystokMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg13 Aug 2026missed
    -75pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake0.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

    • The French Tipsterblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.81won
  • Bodo/Glimt vs Union Saint-GilloiseMatch winner · Third qualifying round. Second leg11 Aug 2026landed
    -75pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake0.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Draw · 1

  • Porto vs AlvercaMatch winner · Premier League9 Aug 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

    • ProSoccerprosoccer146 picks · 67.1% · +0.96%1.80lost
  • Bochum vs Hertha BerlinMatch winner · Bundesliga 27 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters50.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • MightyTipsmightytips239 picks · 54.0% · -6.45%2.35lost
    • EVmaisoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.25lost

    Away · 1

    • match bestoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.00won

    Draw · 1

  • Lincoln Red Imps vs Omonia NicosiaMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Draw · 1

    • folermordoddspedianot enough tracked yet4.40won
  • Navone M vs Fils AMatch winner · Montreal. Hard6 Aug 2026landed
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • NALI QUEENblogabet114 picks · 58.8% · -10.82%1.29won
    • Wall street worldblogabet79 picks · 68.4% · -11.70%1.31won
    • Rickfutirocert0oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.35won

    Home · 1

  • Jagiellonia Bialystok vs RangersMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters50.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • MightyTipsmightytips239 picks · 54.0% · -6.45%2.43lost
    • folermordoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.35lost

    Draw · 1

    Home · 1

    • ROGATIAoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.00won
  • Liberec vs Mlada BoleslavOver/Under · Friendly6 Aug 2026missedone source
    -8pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake66.7%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake33.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Marat Khairullin.blogabet79 picks · 54.4% · +33.46%2.00lost
    • Kazynskiblogabet50 picks · 38.0% · +21.39%1.85lost
    • Kazynskiblogabet50 picks · 38.0% · +21.39%1.90lost

    Under · 1

  • Heidenheim vs BayernAsian handicap · Top Clubsdate unverifiedlandedone source
    +13pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake87.5%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake12.5%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%2.01won
    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.83won
    • Betonrugbyblogabet52 picks · 59.6% · +16.30%1.85won

    Home · 1

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%1.58won
  • Villarreal vs LevanteMatch winner · Top Clubsdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters50.0%
    stake50.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 2

    • isonemybetblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80won
    • MLsfinoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00won

    Away · 1

    • allessio82blogabet66 picks · 37.9% · -9.00%4.43lost

    Draw · 1

    • allessio82blogabet66 picks · 37.9% · -9.00%3.80lost
  • Ferencvaros vs Gornik ZabrzeMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First legdate unverifiedlanded
    +25pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Draw · 1

    • nirofedoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.75lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+18.84%

3,747 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.04%

748 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

56.0%

95% CI [54.5%, 57.6%]

3,747 graded

Rest win rate

47.3%

95% CI [43.8%, 50.9%]

748 graded

The most-backed selection yields +18.8% over 3,747 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.0% over 748 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.8%, but its 95% interval spans -16.9% to +50.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,127 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 5.9 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -6.3% to +18.2% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.3%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 747 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.7% of the settled corpus — 22,044 of 40,330 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,446
21,549
3757
4431
5318
6192
7139
8102
982
1047
1149
1245
1337
1434
1523
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
2111
225
236
249
253
264
275
286
296
305
311
323
330
344
352
363
371
382
391
400
412
420
430
441
450
461
471
480
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise652+19.83%+3.47%
4–5within noise416-8.90%+15.12%
6+within noise246+37.70%-0.97%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise631+10.49%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise467+23.11%-3.33%
Asian handicapwithin noise159+14.82%+6.15%
Asian over underwithin noise20-11.32%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise14+49.04%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources833+28.45%-25.46%
Within one source481+8.79%+51.98%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-10 22:20 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows