When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,435
Tipsters
793
Sources
13
Corpus covered
53.4%
  • Keciorengucu Ankara vs PendiksporOver/Under · League 1date unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

  • Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.09won
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.21won
    • The Dugoutblogabet63 picks · 38.1% · -13.73%2.15won
  • Viking vs Sarpsborg 08Over/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • norgemeisterblogabet146 picks · 54.8% · +4.92%1.89won
    • Archer S.blogabet70 picks · 37.1% · -16.71%1.93lost
    • Archer S.blogabet70 picks · 37.1% · -16.71%1.93lost
  • Jaro vs VPS VaasaAsian handicap · Superleaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • TorasAngelblogabet116 picks · 56.0% · +10.93%1.98won
    • bamboocha72blogabet107 picks · 49.5% · -1.23%1.88won
    • NutDuckblogabet97 picks · 54.6% · +4.31%1.99won
  • Racing Santander vs VillarrealDraw no bet · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedvoidone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • DiegoTipsterblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.44void
    • DiegoTipsterblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.44void
    • El Pensador 1X2blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.53void
  • Athletics vs Texas RangersMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • CSKA Sofia vs Maccabi Tel AvivAsian over under · Third qualifying rounds. Second Legdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

  • Karlsruher vs Arminia BielefeldOver/Under · Bundesliga 2date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Bricksblogabet71 picks · 66.2% · +29.15%1.84won
    • Bricksblogabet71 picks · 66.2% · +29.15%1.92void
    • Xavidcblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.91won
  • Slavia Prague vs PardubiceMatch winner · Superleaguedate unverifiedlanded
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,124 picks · 64.5% · -5.22%won
    • Adibetadibet280 picks · 76.4%won
    • BGFACTORTIPS.COMblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.67won
  • Barracas Central vs Rosario CentralAsian handicap · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • cqc2003Nblogabet105 picks · 50.5% · -3.73%1.79lost
    • cqc2003Nblogabet105 picks · 50.5% · -3.73%1.79lost
    • cqc2003Nblogabet105 picks · 50.5% · -3.73%1.90lost
  • Moreirense vs BragaOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

  • Dynamo Dresden vs Darmstadt 98Over/Under · Bundesliga 2date unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%1.98lost
    • Bricksblogabet71 picks · 66.2% · +29.15%1.90lost
    • esendalpicksblogabet48 picks · 64.6% · +20.17%1.85lost
  • Blooming Santa Cruz vs Real OruroAsian handicap · Primera divisiondate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • VivaBoliviablogabet92 picks · 53.3% · +0.71%1.83won
    • Brisbrainerblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.94lost
    • Brisbrainerblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.75lost
  • Blooming Santa Cruz vs Real OruroAsian over under · Primera divisiondate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

  • Royal Antwerp vs SK BeverenOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Enszi Diamondblogabet132 picks · 54.5% · +5.99%2.08won
    • golstormblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.93won
    • golstormblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.30won
  • Nordsjaelland vs Sankt GallenAsian handicap · Qualifying stage. Final. First legdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

  • Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki FrontaleOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • Celedaasianbookie70 picks · 48.6% · -6.36%1.88won
    • NiNaNiasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · -29.57%1.88won
    • Poonbijovasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · +5.58%1.88won
  • Malisheva vs DrenicaOver/Under · Superligadate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Ferrari ✅blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.74lost
    • Pre-live HTblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.74void
    • shenlaiblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.10won
  • Adelaide United vs Cong An HanoiAsian handicap · Qualificationdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Pandos Worldinosblogabet91 picks · 63.7% · +29.39%1.85lost
    • roxusblogabet39 picks · 46.2% · -16.57%1.79lost
    • roxusblogabet39 picks · 46.2% · -16.57%2.05lost
  • Heracles Almelo vs Den BoschOver/Under · Division 1date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

  • Everton vs Crystal PalaceOver/Under · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Bora1983blogabet89 picks · 58.4% · +32.28%1.85won
    • Nikitasblogabet44 picks · 63.6% · -8.90%1.49void
    • Dorothy-Pinnyblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.99lost
  • Leyton Orient vs AFC WimbledonMatch winner · League Trophy. Group stagedate unverifiedmissed
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Grimaldi Tipsblogabet42 picks · 38.1% · -16.16%2.02lost
    • busymanoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00lost
    • Hanumanoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00lost
  • Molde vs TromsoOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Skoreablogabet85 picks · 48.2% · +0.04%34.00lost
    • Archer S.blogabet70 picks · 37.1% · -16.71%2.07won
    • FOOTBALL_PROblogabet31 picks · 58.1% · +21.77%2.08won
  • Osnabruck vs MagdeburgAsian handicap · Bundesliga 2date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

  • Genclerbirligi vs FenerbahceAsian handicap · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • IL CAPITANØblogabet100 picks · 50.0% · -6.09%1.72lost
    • pegasus41blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.83lost
    • Tsubasablogabetnot enough tracked yet1.90lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+16.45%

4,155 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+3.41%

835 picks · avg price 2.65

Most-backed win rate

56.1%

95% CI [54.6%, 57.7%]

4,155 graded

Rest win rate

47.9%

95% CI [44.5%, 51.3%]

835 graded

The most-backed selection yields +16.5% over 4,155 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +3.4% over 835 priced picks. The gap between them is +13.0%, but its 95% interval spans -18.4% to +44.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.65 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +11.8% over 33,958 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 4.7 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -7.1% to +16.4% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+8.6% to +14.9%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 793 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 53.4% of the settled corpus — 23,859 of 44,674 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,689
21,628
3811
4476
5339
6210
7147
8120
984
1054
1152
1247
1335
1437
1528
1627
1716
1810
1920
2013
2110
224
239
2410
253
263
276
286
295
306
313
323
331
344
354
362
371
382
391
400
410
421
432
441
450
460
470
480
491
501
510
520
531
540
553
560
572
580
590
601
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
76+2

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise710+18.88%-0.19%
4–5within noise451-8.59%+19.41%
6+within noise274+31.95%+0.66%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise672+9.00%+9.03%
Over/Underwithin noise509+20.13%-1.92%
Asian handicapwithin noise188+13.56%+10.74%
Asian over underwithin noise26-8.19%+4.09%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise15-8.15%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources887+23.38%-22.82%
Within one source548+9.21%+47.88%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-14 10:00 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows