When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,335
Tipsters
757
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.5%
  • Boulogne vs Red StarOver/Under · Ligue 221 Aug 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.85lost
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.85lost
    • Enszi Diamondblogabet132 picks · 54.5% · +5.99%2.27lost
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.85lost
    • SOCCERAIDENasianbookie36 picks · 55.6% · +7.31%1.85lost
  • Sirius vs HackenMatch winner · Premier League21 Aug 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Atletico Mineiro vs BragantinoOver/Under · Round of 16. Second leg19 Aug 2026landedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

  • Slovan Bratislava vs CeljeMatch winner · Qualifying stage. Final. First leg19 Aug 2026missed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,062 picks · 64.6% · -5.21%lost
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,165 picks · 43.6% · -6.40%lost
    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%1.85lost
    • mlk85oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.70lost
    • Vanko13oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.70lost
  • Casa Pia vs BenficaMatch winner · Premier League17 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

  • Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv SofiaMatch winner · League 117 Aug 2026landed
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Feyenoord vs Go Ahead EaglesMatch winner · Premier League16 Aug 2026missed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Rio Ave vs PortoMatch winner · Premier League15 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,062 picks · 64.6% · -5.21%won
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,165 picks · 43.6% · -6.40%won
    • Adibetadibet272 picks · 76.8%won
    • ProSoccerprosoccer147 picks · 67.3% · +0.96%1.30won
    • GG Thailandoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.38won
  • Sporting Lisbon vs Vitoria GuimaraesMatch winner · Premier League14 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Shelbourne vs AjaxMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second leg13 Aug 2026missed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

  • Hearts vs BenficaMatch winner · Third qualifying rounds. Second Leg13 Aug 2026missed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

  • PSG vs Aston VillaMatch winner · Salzburg12 Aug 2026landed
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,165 picks · 43.6% · -6.40%won
    • Adibetadibet272 picks · 76.8%won
    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%1.75won
    • Ray98blogabet84 picks · 63.1% · +7.49%1.73won
    • QUIMICOblogabet69 picks · 52.2% · +6.59%1.83won
  • Tigers vs APR BBCOver/Under · National League. Semi-finals. Best of 512 Aug 2026landedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

  • Estrela Amadora vs Sporting LisbonMatch winner · Premier League8 Aug 2026missed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

  • Union Santa Fe vs LanusHandicap · Premier League6 Aug 2026missedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

    • Alertooblogabetnot enough tracked yet11.00lost
    • Alertooblogabetnot enough tracked yet11.00lost
    • Alertooblogabetnot enough tracked yet11.00lost
    • Alertooblogabetnot enough tracked yet11.00lost
    • Alertooblogabetnot enough tracked yet11.00lost
  • Benfica vs HeartsMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Ajax vs ShelbourneMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg6 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Levski Sofia vs Kairat AlmatyMatch winner · Third qualifying round. First leg4 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,062 picks · 64.6% · -5.21%won
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,165 picks · 43.6% · -6.40%won
    • Adibetadibet272 picks · 76.8%won
    • Scorillooddspedianot enough tracked yet1.63won
    • sergyoneoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.65won
  • San Miguel Beermen vs Converge FiberXersOver/Under · PBA. Governor's Cupdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

  • Santiago Wanderers vs Union La CaleraAsian handicap · Cup. Group stagedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

    • Pandos Worldinosblogabet82 picks · 62.2% · +26.55%2.15won
    • kingssssblogabet70 picks · 62.9% · +20.07%1.81won
    • kingssssblogabet70 picks · 62.9% · +20.07%1.72won
    • kingssssblogabet70 picks · 62.9% · +20.07%1.73won
    • kingssssblogabet70 picks · 62.9% · +20.07%1.80won
  • Juventus vs ParmaMatch winner · Serie A. Season 26/27date unverifiedlanded
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Boston Red Sox vs Miami MarlinsOver/Under · MLBdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 5

    • American Fancyblogabet114 picks · 52.6% · +5.11%1.65won
    • Cleakblogabet85 picks · 60.0% · +19.31%1.95won
    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%1.81won
    • Rafael Moraesblogabet42 picks · 45.2% · -20.18%1.60won
    • Spartacus78blogabet34 picks · 64.7% · +5.46%1.66won
  • Roma vs FiorentinaOver/Under · Serie A. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    0pp5 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 5

    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.93lost
    • SIXFOOTERasianbookie107 picks · 47.7% · -45.16%1.93lost
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.93lost
    • Linerblogabet54 picks · 44.4% · -13.91%1.93lost
    • Chacra Digitaloddspedianot enough tracked yet2.17lost
  • Blooming Santa Cruz vs Real OruroOver/Under · Primera divisiondate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • Istambul.betblogabet72 picks · 50.0% · +6.78%1.73lost
    • Istambul.betblogabet72 picks · 50.0% · +6.78%1.73lost
    • Istambul.betblogabet72 picks · 50.0% · +6.78%1.80lost
    • Istambul.betblogabet72 picks · 50.0% · +6.78%1.80lost
    • Brisbrainerblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.70lost
  • Vancouver Whitecaps vs DallasOver/Under · MLSdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.93won
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.93won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.93won
    • NiNaNiasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · -29.57%2.03won
    • Poonbijovasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · +5.58%2.03won
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+18.97%

3,827 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.88%

766 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.8%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,827 graded

Rest win rate

48.0%

95% CI [44.5%, 51.6%]

766 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.0% over 3,827 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.9% over 766 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.1%, but its 95% interval spans -17.1% to +49.3% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,729 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.1 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -6.0% to +18.2% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 757 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.5% of the settled corpus — 22,353 of 41,048 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,467
21,558
3769
4438
5319
6191
7143
8105
981
1050
1150
1246
1336
1435
1524
1624
1715
1811
1916
2014
219
224
237
249
253
264
275
286
295
306
311
325
330
344
352
363
371
381
391
400
412
421
430
441
451
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise662+21.55%+1.77%
4–5within noise421-9.08%+17.94%
6+within noise252+36.72%-0.13%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise637+11.12%+9.43%
Over/Underwithin noise473+23.32%-2.59%
Asian handicapwithin noise166+13.93%+8.87%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources842+28.00%-24.47%
Within one source493+9.64%+51.81%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 11:59 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows