When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,332
Tipsters
756
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.5%
  • Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Bnei MusmusAsian handicap · Liga Alef10 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

    • TorasAngelblogabet102 picks · 57.8% · +14.99%1.99lost
    • dedi22blogabet46 picks · 50.0% · +13.20%1.98lost
    • Bockoblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.90lost
    • Bockoblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.90lost
    • Bockoblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.90lost
  • Moreirense vs BenficaMatch winner · Premier League9 Sept 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

  • Al-Kholood vs Al-Shabab RiyadhMatch winner · Premier League9 Sept 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Orgryte vs HammarbyMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,059 picks · 64.5% · -5.25%lost
    • Adibetadibet272 picks · 76.8%lost
    • ProgressionBetblogabet52 picks · 55.8% · -5.87%1.44lost
    • ProgressionBetblogabet52 picks · 55.8% · -5.87%1.44lost
    • GreatValueOddssblogabetnot enough tracked yet6.00lost
  • Roma vs AtalantaOver/Under · Serie A. Season 26/275 Sept 2026landed
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.90won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.90won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.90won
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%2.30won
    • suikoden5blogabet53 picks · 43.4% · -8.66%1.57lost
  • Motor Lublin vs Legia WarsawMatch winner · Superleague5 Sept 2026landed
    0pp5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,059 picks · 64.5% · -5.25%won
    • Valuebeciorzblogabet44 picks · 65.9% · +18.31%1.70lost
    • SiffrediLegendoddspedia30 picks · 60.0% · +1.03%1.95won
    • Jakub Kubickizawodtypernot enough tracked yet2.17lost
    • Pogioddspedianot enough tracked yet1.98won
  • PSG vs MonacoBoth teams to score · Ligue 1. Season 26/274 Sept 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Yes
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Yes · 5

    • @MK Sport Analysiszawodtyper44 picks · 70.5% · +13.91%1.58won
    • Absolute RONNYzawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.60won
    • Jakub Kubickizawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.58won
    • Lidaoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.55won
    • Paweł Kowalskizawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.61won
  • Bradford City vs Cambridge UnitedOver/Under · League 11 Sept 2026landed
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.05won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.03won
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.91won
    • dangdung35asianbookie69 picks · 49.3% · -67.36%2.03won
    • kenedylenoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.10won
  • Colon Montevideo vs Atletico FenixOver/Under · Cup. Group stage1 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

  • Barcelona vs Rayo VallecanoMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/2731 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Benfica vs EstorilMatch winner · Premier League31 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Mirassol vs Palmeiras SPMatch winner · Serie A30 Aug 2026missed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,059 picks · 64.5% · -5.25%lost
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,162 picks · 43.5% · -6.69%lost
    • Mazuryoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.07lost
    • samtpforteoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.20lost
    • zzoalisoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.20lost
  • Cagliari vs Inter MilanMatch winner · Serie A. Season 26/2730 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

  • Atletico Mitre vs Central NorteOver/Under · Primera Nacional30 Aug 2026landedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 5

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%2.03won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.03won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%2.03won
    • eko2710asianbookie111 picks · 60.4% · -14.96%2.03won
    • dangdung35asianbookie69 picks · 49.3% · -67.36%2.03won
  • FC Andorra vs EibarOver/Under · Segunda Division30 Aug 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

  • Feyenoord vs ADO Den HaagMatch winner · Premier League30 Aug 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,059 picks · 64.5% · -5.25%lost
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,162 picks · 43.5% · -6.69%lost
    • Adibetadibet272 picks · 76.8%lost
    • Zyskblogabet56 picks · 58.9% · +18.55%1.87lost
    • Gabrieldinhoblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.20lost
  • Atletico Tucuman vs BelgranoOver/Under · Premier League30 Aug 2026missedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.70lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%2.87lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.69lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.93lost
    • Mattheus Xavierblogabet46 picks · 60.9% · +31.87%2.31void
  • Lyon vs Le HavreMatch winner · Ligue 1. Season 26/2729 Aug 2026missed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,059 picks · 64.5% · -5.25%lost
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,162 picks · 43.5% · -6.69%lost
    • Adibetadibet272 picks · 76.8%lost
    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%1.52lost
    • AndyRiffzoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.46lost
  • Rio Ave vs Sporting LisbonMatch winner · Premier League28 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 5

  • Barcelona vs Athletic BilbaoMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/2727 Aug 2026landed
    —5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • KA Akureyri vs KR ReykjavikOver/Under · Premier League23 Aug 2026landedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

  • Levski Sofia vs Spartak VarnaOver/Under · League 122 Aug 2026missedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • Bet Navarroblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.40lost
    • Bet Navarroblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.40lost
    • Bet Navarroblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.40lost
    • Bet Navarroblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.25lost
    • Bet Navarroblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.25lost
  • Marseille vs StrasbourgMatch winner · Ligue 1. Season 26/2721 Aug 2026landed
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

  • Boulogne vs Red StarOver/Under · Ligue 221 Aug 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 5

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.85lost
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.85lost
    • Enszi Diamondblogabet132 picks · 54.5% · +5.99%2.27lost
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%1.85lost
    • SOCCERAIDENasianbookie36 picks · 55.6% · +7.31%1.85lost
  • Sirius vs HackenMatch winner · Premier League21 Aug 2026missed
    0pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 5

How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+19.11%

3,820 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.78%

765 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,820 graded

Rest win rate

48.0%

95% CI [44.5%, 51.5%]

765 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.1% over 3,820 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.8% over 765 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.3%, but its 95% interval spans -16.9% to +49.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.8% over 30,690 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.3 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.8% to +18.4% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 756 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.5% of the settled corpus — 22,322 of 40,995 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,459
21,558
3762
4436
5321
6191
7143
8104
981
1050
1150
1246
1336
1435
1524
1624
1715
1811
1916
2013
219
224
237
2410
253
264
275
286
295
306
311
325
330
344
352
363
371
381
391
400
412
421
430
441
451
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise659+22.04%+1.08%
4–5within noise421-9.08%+17.94%
6+within noise252+36.72%-0.13%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise637+11.12%+9.43%
Over/Underwithin noise472+23.45%-2.74%
Asian handicapwithin noise164+14.30%+8.87%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources842+28.00%-24.47%
Within one source490+9.87%+51.77%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 11:08 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows