When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,332
Tipsters
756
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.4%
  • Millwall vs WrexhamOver/Under · Championship2 Sept 2026landed
    0pp15 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 15

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.98won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%2.03won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.95won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%2.03won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.98won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.95won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%2.03won
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%2.03won

    and 7 more

  • Dunkerque vs MontpellierOver/Under · Ligue 2date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp15 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 15

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%2.03won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.88won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.88won
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.88won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.88won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%2.03won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.95won
    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%2.03won

    and 7 more

  • Gangwon FC vs FC GwangjuOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedlanded
    0pp14 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 14

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.93won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.95won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.85won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.93won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.85won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.93won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.93won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.85won

    and 6 more

  • West Ham vs WolverhamptonOver/Under · Championshipdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp14 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 14

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.90won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.80won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.80won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.80won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.90won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.80won
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%1.80won
    • 300358asianbookie74 picks · 59.5% · +15.32%1.80won

    and 6 more

  • AGF Aarhus vs BenficaOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg27 Aug 2026landedone source
    0pp12 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 12

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.98won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.83won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.98won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.93won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.83won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.98won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.83won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.83won

    and 4 more

  • Juventus vs MilanOver/Under · Serie A. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp12 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 12

    and 4 more

  • Anderlecht vs KortrijkMatch winner · Premier League3 Sept 2026landed
    11 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake
    Who backed this

    Home · 11

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,057 picks · 64.6% · -5.24%won
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,160 picks · 43.5% · -6.77%won
    • Adibetadibet272 picks · 76.8%won
    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%1.45won
    • SoloPredictsolopredict201 picks · 76.6% · +2.32%1.50won
    • Alex0oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.40won
    • GoatShadowoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.40won
    • Hunter4Yield21oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.41won

    and 3 more

  • Hacken vs HalmstadsOver/Under · Premier League17 Aug 2026landed
    0pp11 tips
    Under
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 11

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.98won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.98won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.95won
    • SIXFOOTERasianbookie107 picks · 47.7% · -45.16%1.95won
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%1.95won
    • esmegaleoddspedianot enough tracked yet5.75won
    • Jov1972asianbookienot enough tracked yet1.95won
    • Jov1972asianbookienot enough tracked yet1.98won

    and 3 more

  • Kashima Antlers vs Avispa FukuokaOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp11 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 11

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%2.05won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%2.05won
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.80won
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%2.05won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%2.05won
    • Tuan77asianbookie87 picks · 49.4% · +78.35%2.05won
    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%2.05won
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%2.05won

    and 3 more

  • Real Sociedad vs Atletico MadridOver/Under · Primera Division. Season 26/2713 Sept 2026missed
    0pp10 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 10

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%2.00lost
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.98lost
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.00lost
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%2.00lost
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.85lost
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.90won
    • The Spanish Sorcererblogabet46 picks · 47.8% · -11.61%1.80lost
    • WinTeamblogabet34 picks · 55.9% · +8.59%1.83lost

    and 2 more

  • Clermont vs DijonOver/Under · Ligue 221 Aug 2026missed
    0pp10 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 10

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.90lost
    • SoloPredictsolopredict201 picks · 76.6% · +2.32%1.28won
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.88lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.88lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.90lost
    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%1.88lost
    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%1.90lost
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%1.90lost

    and 2 more

  • Vicenza vs CatanzaroOver/Under · Serie Bdate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp10 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 10

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.88won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.90won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.90won
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.88won
    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%1.88won
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%1.88won
    • Celedaasianbookie70 picks · 48.6% · -6.36%1.88won
    • NiNaNiasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · -29.57%1.88won

    and 2 more

  • GAIS vs BrommapojkarnaOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp10 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 10

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.90won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.95won
    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.98won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.98won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.90won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.95won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.95won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.98won

    and 2 more

  • Renate vs NovaraOver/Under · Serie C. Group Adate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp10 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 10

    and 2 more

  • Marseille vs Paris FCOver/Under · Ligue 1. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    0pp10 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 10

    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.00won
    • Versustips11blogabet106 picks · 42.5% · -23.73%1.57lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.88lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%2.49void
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.88void
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.71lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%2.18lost
    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%2.03void

    and 2 more

  • Napoli vs ComoOver/Under · Serie A. Season 26/2730 Aug 2026landed
    0pp9 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 9

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%2.00won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.03won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.00won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%2.00won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%2.00won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%2.00won
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%2.00won
    • dangdung35asianbookie69 picks · 49.3% · -67.36%2.03won

    and 1 more

  • Real Sociedad Alcala vs Real AvilaOver/Under · Clubs29 Aug 2026landed
    0pp9 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 9

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%2.03won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%2.03won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%2.03won
    • eko2710asianbookie111 picks · 60.4% · -14.96%2.03won
    • The Royal Flagblogabet68 picks · 51.5% · -1.88%1.81won
    • LVbetsblogabet60 picks · 61.7% · +1.26%1.63won
    • 032tipsterblogabet55 picks · 65.5% · +11.27%1.58won
    • valpapicksblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.62won

    and 1 more

  • Borac Banja Luka vs Vikingur ReykjavikOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. Second leg27 Aug 2026landedone source
    0pp9 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 9

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.90won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.90won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.90won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.90won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.90won
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%1.90won
    • eko2710asianbookie111 picks · 60.4% · -14.96%1.90won
    • dangdung35asianbookie69 picks · 49.3% · -67.36%1.90won

    and 1 more

  • Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo VerdyOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedmissed
    0pp9 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 9

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.95lost
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.95lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.95lost
    • Hau1990asianbookie81 picks · 63.0% · +60.53%1.95lost
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%1.95lost
    • VivaBoliviablogabet73 picks · 54.8% · +5.45%1.78lost
    • Celedaasianbookie70 picks · 48.6% · -6.36%1.85lost
    • Poonbijovasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · +5.58%2.00lost

    and 1 more

  • Machida Zelvia vs Kawasaki FrontaleOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    0pp9 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 9

    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.83won
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%1.83won
    • Penaldoasianbookie66 picks · 59.1% · +20.99%1.83won
    • Penaldoasianbookie66 picks · 59.1% · +20.99%1.85won
    • xiquaasianbookie61 picks · 49.2% · -5.69%1.90won
    • Chiyauasianbookie48 picks · 54.2% · +3.79%1.90won
    • aadhezdasianbookie47 picks · 51.1% · -2.00%1.85won
    • myboss24asianbookie36 picks · 66.7% · +78.58%1.83won

    and 1 more

  • Sankt Gallen vs NordsjaellandOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. Second legdate unverifiedlanded
    0pp9 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 9

    • Jov135asianbookie425 picks · 53.2% · -25.02%1.90won
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.90won
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.90won
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.90won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.90won
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%1.90won
    • eko2710asianbookie111 picks · 60.4% · -14.96%1.90won
    • dangdung35asianbookie69 picks · 49.3% · -67.36%1.90won

    and 1 more

  • Port Vale vs Exeter CityOver/Under · League 212 Sept 2026missed
    0pp8 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 8

    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.95lost
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.88lost
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.83lost
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%1.95lost
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.76lost
    • 300358asianbookie74 picks · 59.5% · +15.32%1.83lost
    • 300358asianbookie74 picks · 59.5% · +15.32%1.95lost
    • WinTeamblogabet34 picks · 55.9% · +8.59%1.89won
  • Independiente Santa Fe vs Deportes TolimaOver/Under · Serie A12 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp8 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 8

    • Ro-betblogabet112 picks · 50.9% · -2.60%1.83lost
    • Wolf722blogabet99 picks · 65.7% · +7.39%2.03lost
    • Nik Galisblogabet92 picks · 56.5% · +6.36%2.30lost
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%2.74void
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%2.74void
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%2.74void
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%2.74void
    • Andy Murrayblogabet91 picks · 67.0% · +37.84%2.74void
  • Seattle Sounders vs New York Red BullsOver/Under · MLS6 Sept 2026missed
    0pp8 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 8

    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.93lost
    • jacksontiongasianbookie417 picks · 54.4% · +21.27%1.85lost
    • win1706asianbookie297 picks · 58.2% · +52.51%1.85lost
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.85lost
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.93lost
    • vegnes2277asianbookie182 picks · 54.4% · -19.77%1.85lost
    • goodyear1asianbookie174 picks · 56.9% · +69.28%1.85lost
    • ErnestoPVblogabet89 picks · 43.8% · +5.33%1.35lost
  • Genoa vs ComoMatch winner · Serie A. Season 26/274 Sept 2026landed
    0pp8 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 8

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,057 picks · 64.6% · -5.24%won
    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,160 picks · 43.5% · -6.77%won
    • MightyTipsmightytips242 picks · 53.7% · -6.51%1.70won
    • Yanus Ritterblogabet79 picks · 59.5% · +3.25%1.69won
    • tipsterrablogabet32 picks · 56.3% · +27.53%4.00won
    • BETOFTHEDAYblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.81won
    • DreWSRHoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.75won
    • Pizzyoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.70won
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+19.11%

3,820 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.78%

765 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

55.9%

95% CI [54.3%, 57.4%]

3,820 graded

Rest win rate

48.0%

95% CI [44.5%, 51.5%]

765 graded

The most-backed selection yields +19.1% over 3,820 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.8% over 765 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.3%, but its 95% interval spans -16.9% to +49.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.8% over 30,690 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.3 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -5.8% to +18.4% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.2%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 756 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.4% of the settled corpus — 22,316 of 40,989 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,459
21,557
3762
4435
5321
6191
7143
8104
981
1050
1150
1246
1336
1435
1524
1624
1715
1811
1916
2013
219
224
237
2410
253
264
275
286
295
306
311
325
330
344
352
363
371
381
391
400
412
421
430
441
451
461
470
481
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise659+22.04%+1.08%
4–5within noise421-9.08%+17.94%
6+within noise252+36.72%-0.13%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise637+11.12%+9.43%
Over/Underwithin noise472+23.45%-2.74%
Asian handicapwithin noise164+14.30%+8.87%
Asian over underwithin noise21-7.24%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources842+28.00%-24.47%
Within one source490+9.87%+51.77%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-11 08:26 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows