When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,313
Tipsters
747
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.7%
  • Palmeiras SP vs Sao PauloOver/Under · Serie A12 Sept 2026landed
    -38pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake37.5%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake62.5%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • goodyear1asianbookie160 picks · 58.8% · +70.03%1.83void
    • TheInsiderPicksblogabet45 picks · 66.7% · +24.18%1.80won
    • raymondho920asianbookienot enough tracked yet1.83void

    Under · 1

  • Port Vale vs Exeter CityAsian handicap · League 212 Sept 2026landedone source
    +19pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake94.4%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake5.6%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • SaPariepopetteblogabet41 picks · 41.5% · +26.94%2.27won
    • JCFC86blogabet32 picks · 46.9% · -0.38%1.82won
    • Axiom Edgeblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.65won

    Home · 1

    • Aldinhoblogabet120 picks · 45.8% · -15.23%2.03lost
  • Millonarios vs Deportivo CaliAsian handicap · Serie A11 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • LazyDragonblogabet71 picks · 66.2% · +29.68%2.53lost
    • LazyDragonblogabet71 picks · 66.2% · +29.68%2.53lost
    • LazyDragonblogabet71 picks · 66.2% · +29.68%2.53lost

    Away · 1

    • MatchPriceblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.79void
  • Chelsea vs LeedsMatch winner · League Cup. Third round9 Sept 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Draw · 1

    • Hesse 1oddspedianot enough tracked yet4.40lost
  • Porto vs Manchester CityMatch winner · League phase8 Sept 2026landed
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • SoloPredictsolopredict201 picks · 76.6% · +2.32%1.75won
    • Yanus Ritterblogabet79 picks · 59.5% · +3.25%1.61won
    • Kaffeecryptooddspedianot enough tracked yet1.64won

    Draw · 1

  • Cardiff City vs Stoke CityMatch winner · Championship8 Sept 2026landed
    +50pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters50.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    • PippiBetblogabet88 picks · 42.0% · -11.91%2.10won
    • AandVoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.40lost

    Draw · 1

    • WYLSONGSoddspedia34 picks · 35.3% · -18.56%3.70lost

    Home · 1

  • Cagliari vs LecceMatch winner · Serie A. Season 26/277 Sept 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,029 picks · 64.5% · -5.36%won
    • MightyTipsmightytips239 picks · 54.0% · -6.45%2.15won
    • Mackintoshyoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.10won

    Draw · 1

  • O'Higgins vs Union La CaleraMatch winner · Serie A6 Sept 2026landed
    -25pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake50.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

    • Odds Goalsblogabet52 picks · 53.8% · -1.38%1.70won
  • Groningen vs TwenteMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026missed
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,029 picks · 64.5% · -5.36%lost
    • freguliblogabet82 picks · 29.3% · -19.35%2.05lost
    • cridema84oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.05lost

    Draw · 1

  • Mongolia U20 vs Guam U20Asian over under · U20. Qualification6 Sept 2026missedone source
    +6pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake80.6%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake19.4%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Skoreablogabet69 picks · 53.6% · +10.72%1.93lost
    • Skoreablogabet69 picks · 53.6% · +10.72%1.93lost
    • Mafia Tipsterblogabet57 picks · 61.4% · +17.94%2.03void

    Under · 1

  • Sporting Lisbon vs Nacional MadeiraMatch winner · Premier League5 Sept 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Away · 1

    • LarryCalargaoddspedianot enough tracked yet12.00lost
  • Villarreal vs Deportivo La CorunaMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/275 Sept 2026missed
    +25pp4 tips
    Draw
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,147 picks · 43.5% · -6.91%lost
    • ValueEdgeblogabet52 picks · 30.8% · +1.37%4.90lost
    • Dyshaoddspedianot enough tracked yet4.75lost

    Home · 1

  • Willem II vs ExcelsiorOver/Under · Premier League5 Sept 2026void
    +25pp4 tips
    Under
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Over
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • jacksontiongasianbookie415 picks · 54.7% · +21.43%1.83void
    • win1706asianbookie291 picks · 58.8% · +52.79%1.83void
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.83void

    Over · 1

    • Jonas Castrooddspedianot enough tracked yet1.66won
  • Ajax vs PSVMatch winner · Premier League5 Sept 2026landed
    +50pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters50.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 2

    Draw · 1

    Home · 1

    • sergyoneoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.50lost
  • Alverca vs BragaMatch winner · Premier League5 Sept 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,029 picks · 64.5% · -5.36%won
    • 1Bayonaoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.50won
    • Lordmiguel86oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.77won

    Draw · 1

  • Schalke 04 vs BayernMatch winner · Bundesliga. Season 26/275 Sept 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Draw · 1

  • Brentford vs SunderlandOver/Under · Premier League. Season 26/275 Sept 2026landed
    +25pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • jacksontiongasianbookie415 picks · 54.7% · +21.43%1.83won
    • TorasAngelblogabet102 picks · 57.8% · +14.99%1.93won
    • PropBetsblogabet36 picks · 69.4% · +33.39%1.93won

    Under · 1

    • Adarsh7oddspedianot enough tracked yet11.00lost
  • Real Oruro vs San Antonio Bulo BuloAsian handicap · Primera division4 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Odds Goalsblogabet52 picks · 53.8% · -1.38%1.67void
    • Odds Goalsblogabet52 picks · 53.8% · -1.38%1.52won
    • Odds Goalsblogabet52 picks · 53.8% · -1.38%1.52won

    Away · 1

    • toquerothebossblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.80lost
  • Maua U20 vs Capivariano U20Match winner · U20. Paulista4 Sept 2026missedone source
    —4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

  • Varazdin vs Istra 1961Match winner · Premier League4 Sept 2026missed
    +25pp4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,029 picks · 64.5% · -5.36%lost
    • BALKAN ODDSblogabet59 picks · 47.5% · -11.49%1.80lost
    • Daniiiskoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.80lost

    Draw · 1

  • Istanbul Basaksehir vs GalatasarayMatch winner · Superleague4 Sept 2026landed
    +25pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,029 picks · 64.5% · -5.36%won
    • LVbetsblogabet60 picks · 61.7% · +1.26%1.62won
    • Mumurisoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.61won

    Home · 1

  • Vasas vs NyiregyhazaMatch winner · National League4 Sept 2026landed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Draw
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    Draw · 1

    • WYLSONGSoddspedia34 picks · 35.3% · -18.56%3.40lost
  • Lecce U20 vs Roma U20Asian handicap · U20. Primavera4 Sept 2026missedone source
    -42pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake33.3%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake66.7%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

    • Vatcheblogabet87 picks · 48.3% · -7.29%1.90lost
  • Basel vs SionMatch winner · Superleague3 Sept 2026missed
    —4 tips
    Home
    tipsters75.0%
    stake—
    Away
    tipsters25.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,029 picks · 64.5% · -5.36%lost
    • hienoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.45lost
    • JasonRoyoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.80lost

    Away · 1

    • MightyTipsmightytips239 picks · 54.0% · -6.45%2.30won
  • Al Sailiya vs Al Arabi DohaAsian handicap · Stars League3 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake75.0%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    Home · 1

    • Vatcheblogabet87 picks · 48.3% · -7.29%1.90lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+18.89%

3,746 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.04%

748 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

56.1%

95% CI [54.5%, 57.6%]

3,746 graded

Rest win rate

47.3%

95% CI [43.8%, 50.9%]

748 graded

The most-backed selection yields +18.9% over 3,746 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.0% over 748 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.9%, but its 95% interval spans -16.8% to +50.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,020 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.0 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -6.3% to +18.2% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.3%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 747 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.7% of the settled corpus — 22,006 of 40,214 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,440
21,548
3751
4433
5317
6193
7139
8102
981
1047
1149
1244
1337
1434
1523
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
2111
225
236
249
253
264
275
286
296
305
311
323
330
344
352
363
371
382
391
400
412
420
430
441
450
461
471
480
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise651+20.02%+3.47%
4–5within noise416-8.90%+15.12%
6+within noise246+37.70%-0.97%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise630+10.77%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise467+23.11%-3.33%
Asian handicapwithin noise159+14.82%+6.15%
Asian over underwithin noise20-11.32%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise14+49.04%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources832+28.56%-25.46%
Within one source481+8.79%+51.98%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-10 20:41 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows