When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,313
Tipsters
747
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.7%
  • Gamba Osaka vs Urawa Red DiamondsOver/Under · Premier Leaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    -11pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters80.0%
    stake68.8%
    Under
    tipsters20.0%
    stake31.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    Under · 1

    • 7fellowblogabet37 picks · 51.4% · -4.24%2.28lost
  • Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red SoxMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedlanded
    +20pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters80.0%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters20.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.04won
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.07won
    • The Dugoutblogabet63 picks · 38.1% · -13.73%2.00won
    • Rafael Moraesblogabet37 picks · 48.6% · -13.68%2.10lost

    Away · 1

  • New York Mets vs Washington NationalsMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    +20pp5 tips
    Away
    tipsters80.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters20.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    Home · 1

  • Freiburg vs Werder BremenMatch winner · Bundesliga. Season 26/27date unverifiedlanded
    +20pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters80.0%
    stake100.0%
    Draw
    tipsters20.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,144 picks · 43.5% · -6.86%won
    • MightyTipsmightytips239 picks · 54.0% · -6.45%1.91won
    • Fl.oblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.93won
    • Mr. Moëtblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.85won

    Draw · 1

    • Juchenoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.70lost
  • Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia PhilliesOver/Under · MLBdate unverifiedlandedone source
    +0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters80.0%
    stake80.5%
    Under
    tipsters20.0%
    stake19.5%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.88won
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.70won
    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.52won
    • Rafael Moraesblogabet37 picks · 48.6% · -13.68%1.68lost

    Under · 1

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    +20pp5 tips
    Away
    tipsters80.0%
    stake100.0%
    Home
    tipsters20.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 4

    Home · 1

  • Hull City vs Manchester UnitedAsian handicap · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedlandedone source
    -37pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters60.0%
    stake23.1%
    Away
    tipsters40.0%
    stake76.9%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • ValueEdgeblogabet52 picks · 30.8% · +1.37%3.55won
    • GrimaceWoodblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.34won
    • PastoRoi (100% Pinnacle)blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.85won

    Away · 2

    • ChaosIsMe!blogabet44 picks · 50.0% · -0.95%1.85lost
    • johnc14blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.00lost
  • Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay RaysMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    +15pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters60.0%
    stake75.0%
    Away
    tipsters40.0%
    stake25.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.18lost
    • DorySharpblogabet83 picks · 44.6% · -4.29%2.16won
    • 20&10blogabet53 picks · 52.8% · -0.36%2.20lost

    Away · 2

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis CardinalsOver/Under · MLBdate unverifiedlandedone source
    -8pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters60.0%
    stake51.6%
    Under
    tipsters40.0%
    stake48.4%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    Under · 2

    • Oramiblogabet50 picks · 68.0% · +12.34%1.47lost
    • Spartacus78blogabet34 picks · 64.7% · +5.46%1.47lost
  • Orlando City vs Real Salt LakeOver/Under · MLSdate unverifiedmissedone source
    0pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters60.0%
    stake60.0%
    Under
    tipsters40.0%
    stake40.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%2.00lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%2.00lost
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%2.00lost

    Under · 2

    • Celedaasianbookie70 picks · 48.6% · -6.36%2.00won
    • NiNaNiasianbookie60 picks · 55.0% · -29.57%2.00won
  • Newcastle vs LiverpoolOver/Under · Premier League. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    -1pp5 tips
    Under
    tipsters60.0%
    stake58.8%
    Over
    tipsters40.0%
    stake41.2%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%2.05lost
    • SIXFOOTERasianbookie107 picks · 47.7% · -45.16%2.05lost
    • SANSO INVESTMENTblogabet65 picks · 72.3% · +28.11%1.40won

    Over · 2

    • Ray98blogabet75 picks · 65.3% · +10.77%1.62won
    • Tipomaniablogabetnot enough tracked yet2.30won
  • Rakow Czestochowa vs Hajduk SplitOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. Second legdate unverifiedlanded
    +26pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters60.0%
    stake85.7%
    Under
    tipsters40.0%
    stake14.3%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • BALKAN ODDSblogabet59 picks · 47.5% · -11.49%1.80won
    • Betcoin24blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.00won
    • Betcoin24blogabetnot enough tracked yet2.00won

    Under · 2

    • jacksontiongasianbookie415 picks · 54.7% · +21.43%2.00lost
    • win1706asianbookie291 picks · 58.8% · +52.79%2.00lost
  • Zemun vs Crvena ZvezdaAsian handicap · Superleaguedate unverifiedmissedone source
    -10pp5 tips
    Away
    tipsters60.0%
    stake50.0%
    Home
    tipsters40.0%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Soldier Boyblogabet68 picks · 48.5% · -6.34%1.94lost
    • BALKAN ODDSblogabet59 picks · 47.5% · -11.49%1.98lost
    • Spongebobblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.77won

    Home · 2

  • Rapid Vienna vs HeartsOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. Second legdate unverifiedlandedone source
    -6pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters80.0%
    stake74.4%
    Under
    tipsters20.0%
    stake25.6%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    Under · 1

    • LautaroPolandblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.69lost
  • MSV Duisburg vs ElversbergOver/Under · Cup. First rounddate unverifiedmissed
    -30pp5 tips
    Under
    tipsters80.0%
    stake50.0%
    Over
    tipsters20.0%
    stake50.0%
    Who backed this

    Under · 4

    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%1.90lost
    • Tet156799asianbookie168 picks · 47.6% · -7.86%1.90lost
    • TanJovisasianbookie110 picks · 50.9% · +70.66%1.90lost
    • Jovis197asianbookie76 picks · 56.6% · +76.79%1.90lost

    Over · 1

    • Vamos Rafablogabet90 picks · 56.7% · +4.72%1.70won
  • Hapoel Tel Aviv vs AtalantaOver/Under · Qualifying stage. Final. Second legdate unverifiedlanded
    -19pp5 tips
    Under
    tipsters60.0%
    stake40.5%
    Over
    tipsters40.0%
    stake59.5%
    Who backed this

    Under · 3

    • jacksontiongasianbookie415 picks · 54.7% · +21.43%1.93won
    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%1.93won
    • win1706asianbookie291 picks · 58.8% · +52.79%1.93won

    Over · 2

    • Kolyvanoffblogabet86 picks · 45.3% · -13.08%1.95void
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.92won
  • Los Angeles Angels vs Philadelphia PhilliesMatch winner · MLBdate unverifiedmissed
    +20pp5 tips
    Home
    tipsters80.0%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters20.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 4

    Away · 1

  • Sassuolo vs TorinoOver/Under · Serie A. Season 26/27date unverifiedlanded
    -34pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters80.0%
    stake45.9%
    Under
    tipsters20.0%
    stake54.1%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • jacksontiongasianbookie415 picks · 54.7% · +21.43%2.03won
    • win1706asianbookie291 picks · 58.8% · +52.79%2.03won
    • SIXFOOTERasianbookie107 picks · 47.7% · -45.16%2.03won
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.82won

    Under · 1

    • sempretuniblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.93lost
  • Fiorentina vs TorinoOver/Under · Serie A. Season 26/27date unverifiedlanded
    -12pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters80.0%
    stake68.3%
    Under
    tipsters20.0%
    stake31.7%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%1.98won
    • Disciplined Flat 10blogabet113 picks · 39.8% · +7.57%1.98won
    • Bora1983blogabet76 picks · 60.5% · +38.73%1.99won
    • DiegoTipsterblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.03won

    Under · 1

    • sempretuniblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.95won
  • Alaves vs OsasunaMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    +40pp5 tips
    Draw
    tipsters60.0%
    stake100.0%
    Away
    tipsters20.0%
    stake0.0%
    Home
    tipsters20.0%
    stake0.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,144 picks · 43.5% · -6.86%lost
    • Baxa03oddspedianot enough tracked yet3.10lost
    • Football Bombsblogabetnot enough tracked yet3.11lost

    Away · 1

    Home · 1

    • semedoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.30won
  • Paderborn vs FreiburgOver/Under · Bundesliga. Season 26/27date unverifiedmissed
    +7pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters80.0%
    stake87.1%
    Under
    tipsters20.0%
    stake12.9%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • jacksontiongasianbookie415 picks · 54.7% · +21.43%1.98lost
    • ErnestoPVblogabet89 picks · 43.8% · +5.33%1.67lost
    • Penaldoasianbookie66 picks · 59.1% · +20.99%1.98lost
    • raymondho920asianbookienot enough tracked yet1.98lost

    Under · 1

    • Placeholderblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.79won
  • New York City vs NashvilleOver/Under · MLSdate unverifiedmissed
    -34pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters80.0%
    stake45.9%
    Under
    tipsters20.0%
    stake54.1%
    Who backed this

    Over · 4

    • jacksontiongasianbookie415 picks · 54.7% · +21.43%2.03lost
    • Jov135asianbookie405 picks · 54.3% · -24.71%2.03lost
    • seangfayasianbookie234 picks · 54.3% · +47.79%2.03lost
    • WinTeamblogabet34 picks · 55.9% · +8.59%1.81lost

    Under · 1

    • Odds Goalsblogabet52 picks · 53.8% · -1.38%1.61won
  • Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shanghai ShenhuaOver/Under · Superleaguedate unverifiedlandedone source
    -8pp5 tips
    Over
    tipsters60.0%
    stake52.4%
    Under
    tipsters40.0%
    stake47.6%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Enszi Diamondblogabet132 picks · 54.5% · +5.99%1.91won
    • InsiderNewsblogabet104 picks · 82.7% · +52.85%1.81won
    • lxp_17blogabet82 picks · 51.2% · -6.70%1.72won

    Under · 2

    • Tihomirblogabet64 picks · 53.1% · +8.72%2.24lost
    • Tihomirblogabet64 picks · 53.1% · +8.72%3.55lost
  • Manchester City vs Norwich CityOver/Under · League Cup. Third round17 Sept 2026missedone source
    -20pp4 tips
    Over
    tipsters75.0%
    stake54.5%
    Under
    tipsters25.0%
    stake45.5%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Bricksblogabet66 picks · 68.2% · +27.72%1.94lost
    • Aikawablogabet60 picks · 53.3% · +16.39%1.69lost
    • giorgos13blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.71lost

    Under · 1

    • johnc14blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.94won
  • Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La PlataAsian handicap · Premier League13 Sept 2026landedone source
    -18pp4 tips
    Away
    tipsters75.0%
    stake56.5%
    Home
    tipsters25.0%
    stake43.5%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Coldgoldbetblogabet45 picks · 66.7% · +18.16%1.82won
    • DiegoTipsterblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.60won
    • MGUILLEblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.86won

    Home · 1

How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+18.89%

3,746 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+2.04%

748 picks · avg price 2.67

Most-backed win rate

56.1%

95% CI [54.5%, 57.6%]

3,746 graded

Rest win rate

47.3%

95% CI [43.8%, 50.9%]

748 graded

The most-backed selection yields +18.9% over 3,746 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +2.0% over 748 priced picks. The gap between them is +16.9%, but its 95% interval spans -16.8% to +50.5% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.67 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.9% over 30,018 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 6.0 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -6.3% to +18.2% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+9.5% to +16.3%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 747 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.7% of the settled corpus — 21,997 of 40,205 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,442
21,547
3751
4432
5317
6194
7139
8102
981
1047
1148
1244
1337
1434
1523
1625
1714
1811
1916
2013
2111
225
236
249
253
264
275
286
296
305
311
323
330
344
352
363
371
382
391
400
412
420
430
441
450
461
471
480
491
500
510
520
531
541
551
561
571
580
590
600
612
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
761
770
78+1

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise651+20.02%+3.47%
4–5within noise416-8.90%+15.12%
6+within noise246+37.70%-0.97%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise630+10.77%+9.00%
Over/Underwithin noise467+23.11%-3.33%
Asian handicapwithin noise159+14.82%+6.15%
Asian over underwithin noise20-11.32%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise14+49.04%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise13-69.47%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources832+28.56%-25.46%
Within one source481+8.79%+51.98%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-10 20:03 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows