Hedging a Longshot: The Real Price of Locking in Profit
Walk through a pre-season 15.00 outright bet now at 3.00, showing exactly how much you must stake to guarantee profit, what partial hedges do to your expected value, and why hedging tiny bets is often just doubling your costs.
Generated from Tipzy’s settled record data and published without a named author. Figures come from the same graded corpus as the records; how they are produced is set out in the methodology.
Photo by Sasun Bughdaryan on Unsplash
You Took a 15.00 Pre-Season Bet. Now What?
Say before the season started, you snapped up an outright at 15.00 (decimal odds), thinking it was a massive value. You stake €100. If the longshot wins, you pocket €1,400 profit (15.00 × 100 - 100).
Fast forward near the final stages, the same bet is now trading at 3.00 with a respected bookmaker. You’re sitting on what looks like a great profit, but also some risk if your pick falters. This is the classic hedging question: do you lock in a profit now by betting on the opposite outcome, or let it ride?
Plenty of bettors just eyeball it and hedge too much or too little, or don’t hedge at all and lose sleep over a 3.00 price—the difference might be tens or hundreds of euros. So let’s break down exactly how this plays out.
How Much to Stake on the Hedge to Lock in Profit
Your original: €100 at 15.00. Your potential winning: €1,400.
Now the opposing odds: 3.00.
To guarantee a profit regardless of outcome, you want to back the opposite outcome at 3.00 with a stake S where:
Winnings from original if it wins = Winnings from hedge if original loses
So, if original wins:
Profit = (15 × €100) - €100 - S = €1,400 - S
If original loses:
Profit = (3 × S) - €100 - S = 2 × S - €100
Set profits equal:
€1,400 - S = 2 × S - €100
Rearranged:
€1,400 + €100 = 3 × S
€1,500 = 3 × S
Thus:
S = €1,500 / 3 = €500
You bet €500 on the opposing side at 3.00.
Now, your total stakes spent: €100 + €500 = €600.
Outcome table:
| Outcome | Winnings | Net Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Original wins | 15 × €100 = €1,500 | €1,500 - €600 = €900 |
| Hedge wins | 3 × €500 = €1,500 | €1,500 - €600 = €900 |
So no matter what, you lock in €900 profit.
What Hedging Costs You in Expected Value
Sounds great, but let’s compare:
- If you hold the original bet, EV (expected value) depends on whether the 15.00 price you took remains good.
- Your original implied probability: 1 / 15 = 6.67%
- The current market has 3.00 on the opposite, which implies ~33.3% chance the original loses now.
If you believe true chances align with 1 / 3 = 33.3% for the other side, your original bet’s fair probability to win is 66.7% (1 - 0.333).
Expected value if you let it ride:
EV = (Win profit × chance) + (Lose loss × chance)
EV = (€1,400 × 0.667) + (-€100 × 0.333) = €933.8 - €33.3 = €900.5
So your expected value of holding is roughly €900.50.
Compare that to guaranteed €900 profit by hedging with €500. The cost of hedging is roughly €0.50 EV lost—tiny if you trust probabilities and prices are fair.
But here’s the catch: if your true edge is better than the market, hedging slices into your expected gains.
Partial Hedging: The Middle Ground
Instead of betting €500 on the hedge, you could risk less to lock partial profit and still control risk.
Say you hedge €250 (half the amount):
- Original stake still €100.
- Total stakes €100 + €250 = €350.
Profits:
| Outcome | Winnings | Net Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Original wins | €1,500 | €1,500 - €350 = €1,150 |
| Hedge wins | 3 × 250 = €750 | €750 - €350 = €400 |
You won’t guarantee a profit either way, but you cut your risk of losing big while locking some profit if original wins.
The expected value also shifts accordingly:
EV = (€1,150 × 0.667) + (€-100 × 0.333) = €767 + (-€33.3) = €733.7
Less than letting it ride, but you pay for peace of mind.
Hedging Every Small Bet: Doubling the Margin You Pay
Let’s say you do this all the time on small bets—hedging every one to lock in some margin. It’s like paying the bookmaker's vig twice.
If each bet has 5% house edge and you hedge, you pay that edge on original bet and on the hedge. For small stakes, that adds up to a loss quicker than just riding out variance.
The takeaway: partial hedging or no hedging is often smarter for small bets. You only reduce bankroll volatility significantly if stakes and possible profits are large enough to justify doubling cost.
What You Should Actually Do Next
If you own a longshot bet that’s run up from 15.00 to 3.00, calculate the exact hedge stake needed to lock profit if that’s your goal. Run the numbers with the formula above—you should be able to figure it in five minutes with a calculator.
If you want to preserve EV and think your original bet is still better value, let it ride or hedge partially. Don’t lose sleep over every bet moving around unless the sums get big.
Avoid hedging small stakes—a few euros here and there usually aren’t worth doubling your bookmaker’s margin.
Keep a spreadsheet or app handy so you can quickly decide rather than eyeball it. Smart bettors know how much they pay in peace of mind, and when it’s not worth it.