When tipsters agree, does it pay?

Where several tracked tipsters backed the same market, here is how they split — and whether the pick most of them made actually landed.

Crowds
1,381
Tipsters
767
Sources
13
Corpus covered
54.0%
  • Halifax Wanderers vs CavalryMatch winner · Premier League7 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

  • Palermo vs SampdoriaMatch winner · Serie B7 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Cruzeiro vs Atletico ParanaenseMatch winner · Serie A6 Sept 2026missed
    0pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,189 picks · 43.4% · -6.86%lost
    • Sports Picks 23blogabet45 picks · 31.1% · +11.82%2.91lost
    • Vinnyrichoddspedianot enough tracked yet3.50lost
  • Espanyol vs SevillaBoth teams to score · Primera Division. Season 26/276 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Yes
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Yes · 3

    • Mazuryoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00won
    • Tomasz Kowalewskizawodtypernot enough tracked yet1.88won
    • XSlaidoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.85won
  • Marseille vs Paris FCMatch winner · Ligue 1. Season 26/276 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Deportivo Garcilaso vs Atletico GrauMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026landed
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Celje vs KoperMatch winner · Superleague6 Sept 2026missed
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,189 picks · 43.4% · -6.86%lost
    • Barbapapaoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.00lost
    • Football Bombsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.99lost
  • Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa PiaMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Anderlecht vs GenkMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,189 picks · 43.4% · -6.86%lost
    • MightyTipsmightytips247 picks · 53.4% · -7.21%2.32lost
    • KennyCln19oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.35lost
  • Castellon vs AlbaceteMatch winner · Segunda Division6 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Sion vs ThunOver/Under · Superleague6 Sept 2026landed
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • Sebastian 99blogabet34 picks · 67.6% · +21.48%1.71won
    • Elitetip01oddspedianot enough tracked yet1.55won
    • PistolPete7blogabetnot enough tracked yet1.71won
  • Vikingur Reykjavik vs Fram ReykjavikOver/Under · Premier League6 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • cornel88blogabet40 picks · 45.0% · -22.20%1.51lost
    • cornel88blogabet40 picks · 45.0% · -22.20%1.20lost
    • Real FC Betting Tipsblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.53won
  • Cerro Montevideo vs Racing MontevideoAsian handicap · Premier League6 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • LazyDragonblogabet77 picks · 62.3% · +22.14%1.85won
    • LazyDragonblogabet77 picks · 62.3% · +22.14%1.85won
    • LazyDragonblogabet77 picks · 62.3% · +22.14%1.85won
  • Heerenveen vs AZ AlkmaarOver/Under · Premier League6 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • win1706asianbookie314 picks · 56.4% · +51.55%1.83won
    • goodyear1asianbookie194 picks · 54.6% · +68.21%1.83won
    • vegnes2277asianbookie188 picks · 53.7% · -19.92%1.83won
  • Malaysia U20 vs Laos U20Asian handicap · U20. Qualification6 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Vamos Rafablogabet107 picks · 52.3% · -3.75%1.90lost
    • The Fusion Blogblogabet79 picks · 50.6% · -5.95%1.85won
    • Axiom Edgeblogabetnot enough tracked yet1.83lost
  • Malaysia U20 vs Laos U20Over/Under · U20. Qualification6 Sept 2026landedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

  • Nagoya Grampus vs Machida ZelviaMatch winner · Premier League6 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Vitibet Algorithmvitibet4,098 picks · 64.5% · -5.24%won
    • cridema84oddspedianot enough tracked yet2.20won
    • Mazuryoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.20won
  • Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis CityMatch winner · MLS6 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Villarreal vs Deportivo La CorunaAsian handicap · Primera Division. Season 26/275 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Mr. Bblogabet76 picks · 46.1% · -9.18%1.98lost
    • Anubisblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.01lost
    • manosblogabetnot enough tracked yet2.01lost
  • Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCSBMatch winner · League 15 Sept 2026landed
    0pp3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Hull City vs Aston VillaMatch winner · Premier League. Season 26/275 Sept 2026landed
    0pp3 tips
    Draw
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Draw · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,189 picks · 43.4% · -6.86%won
    • ValueEdgeblogabet58 picks · 29.3% · -3.81%3.75won
    • Juri505oddspedianot enough tracked yet3.60won
  • Boreham Wood vs Carlisle UnitedMatch winner · National league5 Sept 2026landed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,189 picks · 43.4% · -6.86%won
    • Cabreraoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.67won
    • Tacticianoddspedianot enough tracked yet1.67won
  • Young Boys vs FC LuzernMatch winner · Superleague5 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Home
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Home · 3

  • Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico MadridMatch winner · Primera Division. Season 26/275 Sept 2026missed
    —3 tips
    Away
    tipsters100.0%
    stake—
    Who backed this

    Away · 3

    • Predictz Algorithmpredictz2,189 picks · 43.4% · -6.86%lost
    • Dem wa FBoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.35lost
    • Wenywalaoddspedianot enough tracked yet2.35lost
  • West Bromwich vs WatfordOver/Under · Championship5 Sept 2026missedone source
    0pp3 tips
    Over
    tipsters100.0%
    stake100.0%
    Who backed this

    Over · 3

    • jacksontiongasianbookie418 picks · 54.5% · +21.32%1.93lost
    • win1706asianbookie314 picks · 56.4% · +51.55%1.93lost
    • SIXFOOTERasianbookie107 picks · 47.7% · -45.16%1.93lost
How to read a row

Tipsters is how many backed the selection. Stake is how much of the published stake went there. When they disagree, a few tipsters are loading on something the rest only nodded at.

Diff is that gap for the most-backed selection, in percentage points, and is highlighted past 10pp. Negative means plenty of bodies but little conviction.

The stake column is blank where nobody published a stake — most sources are flat-stake, and repeating the tipster split there would invent a money signal out of an absence. Rows marked one source are tipsters on the same site, who can read each other; that is agreement, not independent confirmation.

Did the crowd's pick pay?

Every selection above, split into the one most tipsters backed and everything else.

Most-backed yield

+16.45%

3,984 picks · avg price 2.00

Rest yield

+3.99%

801 picks · avg price 2.65

Most-backed win rate

55.7%

95% CI [54.1%, 57.2%]

3,984 graded

Rest win rate

48.1%

95% CI [44.6%, 51.5%]

801 graded

The most-backed selection yields +16.4% over 3,984 priced picks; the rest of the field yields +4.0% over 801 priced picks. The gap between them is +12.5%, but its 95% interval spans -19.8% to +44.7% -- this sample cannot separate the two. That is a result, not a missing one. The most-backed selection is priced at a mean of 2.00, the rest at a mean of 2.65 -- sides priced this differently are expected to post different strike rates on their own, before either one has actually called anything better.

Across the whole corpus, every advertised pick yields +12.2% over 32,167 priced picks. The crowd's pick is 4.2 points ahead of that, but the interval on the difference spans -7.9% to +16.3% -- so it has not been shown to beat the corpus it was drawn from. A corpus whose whole 95% interval sits above zero (+8.9% to +15.5%) is describing what gets published and graded rather than an edge a bettor could have taken, so treat every absolute yield on this page as inflated and the gap between two of them as the number that means something.

Why yield, and not the win rate?

The side more tipsters back is usually the favourite, and favourites win more often at shorter prices. That is what a short price means, not evidence the crowd called it right — see the strike-rate/yield pair for the general case. Yield is the number that pays, so the verdict reads from it. Win rate stays visible because the gap between the two is itself the point.

Both are measured over advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability rather than a price; a price derived from one carries no bookmaker margin and describes a bet nobody could have placed, so those tips are excluded from these four figures entirely.

What counts as a crowd, and whose crowd is it?

Two tips are the same fixture when they share an event, or name the same two teams on the same UTC day. A crowd needs three or more tips on the same market, and one selection has to beat every other individually — a tie has no winner to name.

"Most-backed" is a plurality, not a majority: on a three-way market a selection only has to beat each rival on its own. A split of 5 home / 4 draw / 3 away reads as 5 against 7. The other side is a mixture of whatever different bets those tipsters made, never one shared opposing view.

These groups are backed by 767 distinct tipsters across 13 distinct sources.

These figures speak for 54.0% of the settled corpus — 23,058 of 42,683 rows carry a fixture identity we can group on. The rest carry neither an event nor a verified kickoff, and are excluded rather than guessed at.

How many tips each fixture attracted
How many settled tips each identified fixture attracted, one row per tip count until the remaining fixtures no longer outnumber the row below them.
TipsFixtures
12,583
21,574
3779
4456
5322
6201
7145
8111
982
1053
1150
1247
1336
1438
1526
1628
1716
1812
1918
2013
219
224
238
2410
253
263
276
286
295
305
312
323
330
345
353
362
371
382
391
400
410
421
431
442
450
460
470
480
491
501
510
521
531
540
552
562
571
580
590
601
611
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
710
721
730
740
750
76+2

Where it holds up

The same comparison, cut three ways. Each column is a yield: what the crowd's pick returned against what everything else returned.

By how many agreed

Does a bigger pile-on pay more than a slim majority?

By how many agreed: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
Tipsters agreeingCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
3within noise683+17.98%+1.95%
4–5431-9.40%+21.22%
6+within noise267+32.40%+0.74%

By market

Agreement on who wins and agreement on a total are not the same act.

By market: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
MarketCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Match winnerwithin noise657+9.12%+10.45%
Over/Underwithin noise487+20.26%-2.10%
Asian handicapwithin noise174+12.33%+14.71%
Asian over underwithin noise23-9.92%+33.83%
Double chancewithin noise15+49.39%-32.25%
Handicapwithin noise10-9.97%+384.19%
Otherwithin noise15-8.15%—

By where the crowd came from

Tipsters on separate sites agreeing is a different fact from one site agreeing with itself.

By where the crowd came from: what the most-backed selection and the rest of the field yielded in each bucket, over advertised prices only.
CrowdCrowdsCrowd's pickThe field
Across sources866+23.74%-22.57%
Within one source515+8.70%+50.73%
Why the yields here can mislead

Read the Crowds column before the yields. These buckets hold very different numbers of crowds, and a striking figure over a handful of them is a small sample, not a finding about that market. A row marked within noise is one whose two yields cannot be told apart: the 95% interval on the difference between them still contains zero, so whatever gap the columns show is inside what ordinary variance produces on its own.

Bigger crowds also gather on bigger matches, and bigger matches carry shorter prices. A difference across the crowd-size buckets can be the prices talking rather than the crowd.

These three axes are around a dozen comparisons in total, each at 95% confidence. On that many, roughly one in twenty would clear the bar by chance alone even if nothing here were real, so a single separable row is weaker evidence than it looks. Two rows pointing in opposite directions on the same axis, as the crowd-composition split does, is the pattern that is hard to get by accident.

Method and limits

Why there are no upcoming fixtures here

Every crowd on this page has already played and been graded. A tip we observed on another site is never published before it settles: showing someone else's live pick would make this a substitute for the site we are checking rather than a check on it. That rule is in the methodology, and it is why there is no "tonight's consensus" board.

Which prices count

Advertised prices only. Some sources publish a probability instead of a price; deriving one from it (1/p) gives a number carrying no bookmaker margin, which flatters every return computed from it. Those tips still count towards who is in a crowd — an algorithm's tip is a real tip — but never towards a figure about money.

Why this page disagrees with the research study

This page reads the live corpus, so its figures move as tips settle. The corpus study closes its data at the start of each month so a number quoted from it is still there when someone checks. The two will report different figures for the same measurement, and neither is wrong. Cite the study; read this page.

Computed
2026-09-12 22:25 UTC
Cadence
Every request, live
Revisions
None — the corpus only grows