How to Choose a Tipster You Can Actually Trust
Most tipster stats are cherry-picked. Learn the metrics that matter — verified records, ROI, sample size, and staking — before you follow anyone.
Anyone can post a winning screenshot. The hard part is telling a genuinely skilled tipster from a lucky — or dishonest — one. Here is what to look at, and what to ignore.
Ignore: strike rate on its own
"85% winners!" sounds great and means almost nothing. As we covered in our value betting guide, a high strike rate at short odds can still lose money. Always ask: at what odds?
Look at: ROI over a real sample
Return on investment tells you profit per unit staked. A tipster returning +8% ROI over 500 bets is far more convincing than one at +40% over 30 bets — the second is probably variance.
| Metric | Weak signal | Strong signal |
|---|---|---|
| Sample size | < 100 bets | 300+ bets |
| ROI | Unverified claim | Tracked, positive |
| Odds range | Only short favourites | Consistent across prices |
| Staking | Random amounts | Documented, disciplined |
Demand: a verified record
This is the big one. A screenshot can be faked; a tracked record cannot. Every pick should be logged before the event starts, with the odds taken at the time, and settled automatically. If you cannot see the losers, you are only seeing a highlight reel.
That is the entire reason Tipzy exists — every pick is timestamped and results are tracked, so the leaderboard reflects real performance, not marketing.
Red flags to walk away from
- "Guaranteed" or "fixed" tips. Nothing in betting is guaranteed. This is the oldest scam in the book.
- Deleted losing bets. Selective history = dishonest history.
- Pressure to bet big or bet now. Value does not expire in 10 minutes.
- No odds recorded. Without the price at time of tip, ROI is unknowable.
- Chasing losses with bigger stakes. A disciplined tipster stakes consistently.
A simple checklist
Before you follow anyone, confirm you can answer yes to all of these:
- Can I see every bet, including losers?
- Is the sample at least a few hundred picks?
- Is ROI positive and the odds range realistic?
- Is staking consistent and documented?
- Was each pick recorded before kickoff?
If any answer is no, keep your money in your pocket.
18+ | Gamble responsibly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.